Track the Bet is a sports betting analytics software which helps users manage their sports picks with multiple reports and graphs. Users can view their Overall Records, Total Profit & ROI by sport for the following bet types:

• Straight, Parlay & Teasers
• Money line, Spread & Total
• Home/Road Underdogs & Home/Road Favorites
• Conference & Team

Users can also create customized, daily e-mail Alerts and Saved Reports to help stay on top of their plays and monitor their money management habits, which is crucial for long term success against the sportsbooks.

Currently Supported Sports
NFL
College Football
NBA
College Basketball
MLB
NHL

How It Works

Tracking your sports bets is easy. Simply:

1. Select Bet Type & Team
2. Enter in Wager amount
3. Customize Spread or Juice (if necessary)
4. Enjoy the game!

Each bet is auto-graded and upon completion of the game, the wager is available for instant analysis.

By subscribing to TracktheBet, users can:

• Spend less time updating & verifying records
• Pinpoint misconceptions in gaming arsenal
• Document money management habits
• Detail bankroll and account balances
• Identify irregular betting patterns
• Manage performance

• Look to teams that had poor winning record last year going against the superbowl champs… This is an angle that has shown profit year after year. A team that had a dissapointing showing the year before, can gain a lot of respect in hurry by beating the reigning Super Bowl champs. Incentive is the key word here.

• Analyze the coaching records in preseaon play….Some coaches are notorious for not caring whether they win or lose a preseason football, while others put a lot of stock in getting their teams in a positive winning attitude by winning in preseason. This angle has become increasing less valuable, as so many coaching changes have occured over the past few year, but still valuable for those that do have a track record.

• Look for teams in a “have to win” position….Some owners who have had poor attendance records due to losing teams two or three years in row, will instruct the coaches to go all out to win preseason games to regain the confidence of the fans and sell season tickets. There are also some coaches whose jobs maybe on the line and need to show some wins in preseason to keep them. Constant reading of teams local papers and press releases will give you a tip on this angle.

• Read all the coaches weekly press conference reports…Coaches will invariably tip off their game plan for an upcoming preseason game. Either they will be working on defense, or looking at rookies, or tuning up the offense. Read between the lines and you can get a good handle on how the game is going to be played. Two coaches stating they are working on their offense this week, could mean a high scoring game. A coach stating he has to make some cuts might be looking at a lot of rookies and the starters may see very little action. Many situations may come to light if you read, and can analyze what you are reading, in other words “read between the lines”.

• Watch the press releases for the QB rotations….This is one of the most telling angles for handicapping a preseason game. A coach with 3 or 4 rookies or free agents vying for a QB position may pick one or two games to get an extensive look at these QB’s. Many times in these situations, a starter may only handle the ball for one series. Rookie QB’s are prone to make mistakes that could very well cost a ball game. Getting a situation like this going against a coach who has stated he will playing his #1 for an entire half and his #2 the second half is a huge edge for the handicapper. You also want to give a big edge to teams whose backup QB’s are all veterans or at least mostly veterans. Even though though the starter may play less than a quarter, following up with two veterans versus a team with two rookies is a huge advantage..Veterans will not normally make the mistakes a rookie might make that could cost the ball game.

• My Favorite Angle….There are many more angles that come into play when handicapping preseason almost all of which require extensive reading. One of my favorites is a team with an extensive amount of free agents joining the team. They are already seasoned veterans not likely to make rookie mistakes, but need to get extra playing time to get acclimated to the offensive and defensive schemes. Getting a veteran matched up against a rookie is an overwhelming handicapping edge.

If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding that 1 or 2 point advantage. Astute handicappers and sport bettors are constantly “shopping the line” on a game they have an interest in betting, looking for that ½ point that could swing a loser into a winner. One way to find that “edge” is knowing what the “real” home field advantage is for a given game matchup. Bookmakers will arbitrarily assign a 3 point line advantage to the home team in the NFL and 4 points to the home team in college matchups.

Taking the time to track the home and away point differential can mean the difference between a winning and a losing season. The 3 and 4 points the books assign to the home teams in football, will usually average out to be fairly close at the end of a season, but these averages are made up of teams that have much less or much higher “real” home advantage. A few years ago a college team actually had a 8.0 point real home advantage and we ended up cashing at least 3 tickets on that team during the season that we would most likely have not even have had considered a play.

Figuring the “real” home field advantage may take a little extra time in your handicapping process, but is not that difficult. Using the linesmakers opening line on a game as our common denominator, we want to determine by the results of the game, how much better against the point differential the bookmakers feel they should win or lose. We track this separately for home and away games.

Example: If the linesmaker determines the home team should win by say 10 points by posting a 10 point spread and that team actually wins the game say by 17 points, then that team played 7 points better in their home game than what was expected. By dividing the difference (7 points) by 10, we have an adjustment to the home field advantage of 0.07 points. If this team had a 4.0 home advantage going into the game, their adjusted real home field advantage would now be 4.07 points per game. Taking the road teams performance, they played 7 points below expectation and therefore we assume they would have played better at home so they also would get the .07 added to their home field advantage, so if their home field advantage going into the game was 4.0, they would now have a 4.07 advantage when playing at home.

The opposite of course holds true when a team plays below expectations. Let’s say the team mentioned above only won the game by 3 points. They played 7 points below expectation and therefore the .07 must be deducted from their home advantage. So their home advantage would now be 3.93. The road team actually played better on the road than anticipated which would diminish their home field advantage number and they would be deducted the .07 from their existing home field advantage.

Anytime a home team plays better than expected (against the spread) they gain points, when the result is less than expected they are deducted points. When the road teams plays better than expected, they are deducted points from their home field advantage when they play below expectations, points are added to their home field advantage.

By the middle of the season you could find a matchup that would give you a 3 or 4 point advantage over the bookmaker. Some teams consistently play as good on the road as they do at home and therefore have very little home field advantage. On the other hand, some teams perform week after week better at home than on the road and have a much better home field advantage…Getting a matchup with a road team that plays as good on the road as they do at home, versus a team with a poor home field advantage, takes away the 4 points home advantage the books add to the spread. This is a huge advantage when handicapping this game.

• My favorite angle is the “free agent” angle. A team that has picked up a lot of free agents or made trades during the off-season will normally give these players some extra playing time so they can get familiar with the team playbook and offensive and defensive schemes. These are almost always veterans who many times will be matched up against the opposing teams rookies and players the coaches are looking at to make roster decisions.
• The coaching angle has not been as solid in the past few years, as there are so many coaching changes and new head coaches that preseason patterns have not been formed. There are coaches that historically do not give a hoot about winning preseason games, while others year after year want to build on the confidence factor for players and fans, and win as many preseason games as possible.
• “The Quarterback rotation factor” is extremely important. Coaches will invariably announce a few days in advance their intentions of who will play and for how long at QB. This is vitally important as there is always a game or two where the starting QB may be scheduled to play well into the 2nd half. This will sometimes end up in a matchup where the opposing team is using there rookies or backups for most of the game.
• The “Quarterback depth factor” is also a big advantage. When you have a team that has 3 backups that all have 3 or 5 years experience in the NFL and / or have had some starts, this is a big advantage over a team where all backups are rookies or second year players. The experienced backup is less prone to make rookie type mistakes that could cost them the ball game.
• The “0-3 Factor” has proven to be very profitable in preseason. Even coaches who do not care if they win or lose in preseason do not want to finish the preseason without a win. Teams going into week 4 or 5 of preseason without a win are teams you want to pay close attention.
• The “Final Tune-up” factor can catch you a nice easy winner. Coaches always have one game where they want to give the starters a final tuneup and keep them in the game sometimes for as much as 3 quarters. Depending on the coach and the situation, this is usually the 3rd of 4th game of preseason. The final game of the season is used by coaches for looking at rookies and players on the bubble before cut time. Catching a game where the coach is using as his tuneup for starters against a team looking at rookies will almost always guarantee you a win.
• The “Show me the Money” factor is one where a team may be coming off a disappointing season and the owners are sweating out the lack of season ticket sales. They will on occasion instruct the coaching staff to try and get some wins in preseason to get back the confidence of the fans and increase ticket sales.
• The “On the chopping block” factor is one where the head coach’s job is hanging by a string. With his job on the line he will always be looking to rack up wins in preseason.
• Total plays can be profitable in preseason when reading that say, both teams are going to concentrating on the same thing, such as improving offense or defense or the running game or passing game…Two teams who are using the game to concentrate on improving offense will more often than not, get you an easy win on a “over” play. Of course the opposite holds true when concentrating on defense. A team vowing to work on the running game will also tend to be a good under play. A team who is coming off a very bad offensive performance, will invariably be looking to work on offense in the next game and the same holds true for the defense.

Underrated…..Overrated

I have released my first two future plays for the upcoming NFL season, playing the "totals" futures of over and under on two teams of one is overrated and the other underrated New Orleans Saints…"over" 10.5 +1.10 bodog …Underrated….The Saints are the reigning superbowl champs coming off a 13-3 season. They are returning nearly the entire team and coaching staff from a year ago. Although the schedule may be a little tougher this year, how can the linesmakers assume they will have a 3 game drop off….I look for them to repeat the 13-3 season and at the very worst…11-5. NY Jets "under" 9.5 -1.15 bodog …Overrated…The Jet's made it to the playoffs last year with a 9-7 record. They were carried the entire season on the strength of their defense which ranked #1 in 3 of the 4 defensive categories…The offense may improve a little with Sanchez having another year experience under his belt, but if they think the acquiring of Tomlinson is the end all to the superbowl, well I believe they are sadly mistaken. Last year they were 17th in points scored, 20th in yards gained and 31st in passing. Nothing improves here except maybe the passing rank.

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Making a future bet before the season starts, means that you will have your money tied up with the book for nearly 6 months. That being the case you certainly want a decent return, kind of like accruing interest on your money. Unless your putting down a sizable amount of money on a single future bet, it is not feasible to bet a future on a 2-1 or 5-2 favorite. Any way you cut it, your odds are still 31 against you…Obviously the realistic odds are probably around 20/1 as there are always at least 10 or 12 teams that you can throw out as not having any kind of a chance of making it to the playoffs much less the Superbowl.

I like to make at least 2 future bets to win the Superbowl, one in the NFC and one in the AFC..I more often than not make two plays in each conference. If your playing 3 or 4 plays, it becomes obvious that you don't want to play a 2/1 favorite, you could win the 2/1 bet and still end up losing money on your future bets. I look for odds that will give me a "hedging" opportunity. Over the years I have made more money hedging future bets than winning the future bet itself. Again to have good hedging opportunities you need

to have good odds.

The first thing I do when looking for a good future bet, is to throw out the favorites with odds of less than 10/1. I then throw out the obvious teams that have little chance of making the playoffs. Usually after this excercise I am left with maybe 15 to 20 teams. Next I want to look for teams that have a chance of winning their division, of course these are ones that are left after getting rid of the favorites.

I am looking for teams that have an outside chance of making the playoffs and have good odds. Getting to the playoffs will give you the hedging opportunity we discussed earlier. For this reason I play only to win the Superbowl, I do not play futures to win the Division or the Conference. More on "hedging" future bets in upcoming articles.

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They have practically their entire team of 2009 returning and all the coaching staff. This is a team that offensively were 1st in points 31.9, 1st in yards with 403.8. They return the entire offensive line and have great depth in the receiving corp. If they had any concerns from last year, it was a defense that ranked 20th to 25th in all categories. They were however a very oportunistic unit as they were 2nd in takeaways. I look for a great improvement from the defense overall.

Of course their schedule will be a little tougher this year with question marks on 5 games. They play the AFC north in their non coference games which is a pretty tough division with the likes of Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also have to face the Cowboy’s and Vikings in non-divisional games. They will be playing 8 teams this year that finished with a winning record, and 5 teams that were in the playoffs.

It won’t be cake-walk for sure but until I dig deeper into my analysis of the entire league, I would have to say that they certainly are in line for a repeat…The very worst I can see them ending is 11-5 and I really can’t see anyone vying for the division title against them.

As always, we have to start to adjust our power rating numbers to account for the graduates and transfers. Also as mentioned above you have to make adjustments for the first part of the season for the players who have been suspended for the first games of the season.

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The first thing I always like to look for when handicapping playoff games, are teams coming in with the momentum….Teams that have win streaks or have won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games is always an edge over those teams that have faltered down the stretch…

Obviously paying very close attention to the injury reports is extremely crucial. Losing a key player in a must win game usually does not have a real positive result…..

I always give the home team a little extra home field advantage in playoffs…especially if the visitor has a losing or mediocre spread record on the road…I also will look at warm weather teams traveling to a field that expects to have very cold or inclement weather conditions…

Teams who did not get a bye in the first week are always at a disadvantage over teams who are rested and have had time to prepare.

Coaches who have playoff or big game experience will get an edge over coaches or teams that have not been in a playoff situation.

Watch for “public favorites” that appear to have an over valued line…The general public will have a tendency to bet favorite teams in the playoffs and a lot more money is bet on playoff games than on a regular season game….

Be careful when backing teams that are starting rookie or 2nd year QB..although they may have performed well enough during the regular season to get them to the playoffs, many times the pressure of  “win or go home” will create some mistakes they normally wouldn’t make in a regular season game.

And finally, don’t fall into the trap that “home favorites in the playoffs are an automatic win”….This may be true when considering a straight up bet, but it is not all that good a percentage when considering the spread, in fact because of the fact that so many believe in this, the value to the line for the road dog is usually overvalued.

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