For example: if you play a team with say 20/1 odds and they get past the first round and are now favored in the second round, you can always take the opponent at plus points and have a chance of staying alive with your future play and collecting your bet with the pointspread. With a 20/1 to you have flexibility with hedging. If you put say $100.00 on a 20/1, your payoff is $2000.00 if they win it all, however, you can hedge the second round at say $500.00 and if they lose you win your $500.00 bet thus giving you a $400.00 profit on your future bet….If they win you still are alive for the $2000.00 payoff and can now look agains to hedge in the next round and still make profit.

I like to pick my best 4 teams to play on the futures….here are my picks for this year….I will usually take the one team I figure to win it all plus my longshots with the good odds.

Duke 7/1…..BYU 100/1…..Georgetown 20/1….W. Virginia 10/1….(all odds taken from the Bodog Sports Book

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The conference tournaments are usually all played at one venue and so one team will have the advantage of the home court, otherwise all games must be considered the same as road games. The conference tourny’s will sometimes be the deciding factor for teams getting into the big dance. Although many conferences have automatic bids that go to the winner of the tourny, some will still be vying for an “at-large” bid or a higher seeding, so it is important to take these situations into consideration when handicapping…

Home Sweet Home…The NCAA tourny is set up in regions and although no teams (rarely) will be playing on their home court, you will find that some teams will have a geographical edge as they will draw more hometown fans for their games the closer to the location of the tourny venue to their school location. Otherwise, all games are to be considered road games.

This being said, when handicapping the tourny, you will want to put more weight on teams that have shown good road records both SU and ATS during the regular season.

Been There, Done That….Watch for matchups between the teams that have players and coaches that have prior NCAA tourny experience going against teams with players that are making their first appearance. The experience of handling the hype of the tourny is a big factor when handicapping these games.

Were Just Glad To Be Here…. There will always be entries in the tourny that are surprised that they are even playing in the tourny. These teams many times will be satisfied for just being there and consider the entry as the highlight of the season and really don’t have their sites set on going past the first round. These are teams that should be avoided when handicapping..

Playing With The Big Boys….Schedule strength and conference strength must always be considered. Although the linesmakers usually make their lines taking this factor into consideration, many times you can catch a bad line based on one team playing in a much weaker conference or a much easier schedule than their opponents..Many power ratings on based on the overall season performance and don’t make the proper compensation. (more to come in upcoming posts)

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