Track the Bet is a sports betting analytics software which helps users manage their sports picks with multiple reports and graphs. Users can view their Overall Records, Total Profit & ROI by sport for the following bet types:

• Straight, Parlay & Teasers
• Money line, Spread & Total
• Home/Road Underdogs & Home/Road Favorites
• Conference & Team

Users can also create customized, daily e-mail Alerts and Saved Reports to help stay on top of their plays and monitor their money management habits, which is crucial for long term success against the sportsbooks.

Currently Supported Sports
NFL
College Football
NBA
College Basketball
MLB
NHL

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Tracking your sports bets is easy. Simply:

1. Select Bet Type & Team
2. Enter in Wager amount
3. Customize Spread or Juice (if necessary)
4. Enjoy the game!

Each bet is auto-graded and upon completion of the game, the wager is available for instant analysis.

By subscribing to TracktheBet, users can:

• Spend less time updating & verifying records
• Pinpoint misconceptions in gaming arsenal
• Document money management habits
• Detail bankroll and account balances
• Identify irregular betting patterns
• Manage performance

Southern Miss at South Carolina -14.0 (47.0)
Southern Miss is 2-11 in road openers and have lost the last 5 by average of 15 ppg. They lose 8 starters on offense including 1000 yard rusher Damion Fletcher.
Since Spurrier has taken over the helm at South Carolina, the Gamecocks have not been known for explosive offense, they average slightly over 20.0 per game the past two seasons and 23.6 in his 5 years. This may change a little as they are returning 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball. They will be without standout TE Weslye Saunders who has been suspended and Spurrier has given no indication about his return date. Gamecocks have won 10 consecutive opening games and Steve Spurrier is 24-1 as a head coach in openers.
Opinion: None…South Carolina will win but averaging only 20 pts per game makes it very iffy to cover a 14 point spread.
T-Rating Line: South Carolina -14.16 

Marshall at Ohio State -28.5 (47.5)
This is one of those opening day non-conference mismatches. Marshall loses leading rusher Darius Marshall who had 1177 yards on the ground last year. They have lost 10 straight openers by an average of 23 ppg, they are 1-13 vs ranked FBS opponents.
Ohio State has their sights set on a national championship this year. They return 9 starters on an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg last year. They have won 31 consecutive home openers.
Opinion: …Would consider a small play on OSU if could get the line down to 27 or less..Easy win for the Buckeyes but tough to lay 4 TD’s+ in an opening game.
T-Rating Line: Ohio State -29.97

Northern Illinois at Iowa State -3.5 (47.5)
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference road games. Under HC Jerry Kill, they went from giving up 31 points per game in 2007 to just 18 in 2008 and 22 in 2009 and could improve on that as they return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa State is in somewhat of a look ahead situation as they face in-state rival Iowa next week where they will be seeking revenge following last years embarrassing 35-3 defeat. They are 10-1 in home openers the last 11 years. They were very respectable on defense also as they gave up only 21.8 average.
Opinion: I may be looking at an under play on the total in this game. Will have to do more research..No opinion on the side play
T-Rating Line: Iowa State -4.10

Pittsburgh at Utah -2.5 (49.5)
** Diamond Club 2 Diamond Member Selection

USC -21.0 at Hawaii (53.0)
USC loses 6 starters on both sides of the ball including 1000 yard rusher Joe McKnight and their two leading receivers Damian Williams and Anthony McCoy. Starting QB Sophomore Matt Barkley was mediocre at best in his first season, with a 15 to 14 TD to Interception ratio and a 56.9% completion, with their lowest points for average in the past 10 years (26.5). They have won their last 12 season openers and hold 28-1 record against the WAC.  They were only 2-5 ATS last year as a road favorite.
Hawaii 23 points per game last year was the lowest output in over a decade. The 30 allowed was the most since 2005. Hawaii is 0-6 versus USC with an average score of 19-62.
Opinion: These are two teams with a lot of questions to be answered. No way to figure this one out. Just stay away from it.
T-Rating Line: USC -21.03

Minnesota -3.0 at Mid Tennessee (48.5)
Minnesota struggled on offense last year averaging 20.9 per game the lowest average in the last 7 years. It may improve however as they return 9 starters to the offense. The defense maybe the problem for them this year as they lose 9 starters on that side of the ball.  They are 8-2 as non-conf road favorite the last 10 situations.
Middle Tennessee will be without starting QB Dwight Dasher, they will be starting a JC transfer sophomore QB. They are coming off a very good 10-3 season and have most of their key players returning. However, they are 1-5 in non-conference home openers the past 6 years.
Opinion: This was going to be a small play for me but the suspension of the starting QB has to keep me off the game.
T-Rating Line: Minnesota -1.25

Friday August 3
Arizona -14.5 at Toledo (60.0)
Arizona doesn’t fare well as a big road favorite, they are 0-6 as a rd fav of 4 points or more in the last 6 situations. Arizona is 0-8 in road openers last 8 years, but 5-0 versus MAC opponents in the last 5 meetings. They return 10 starters to the offense but lose 7 on the defensive side. After a 10-3 season in 2008 Mike Stoops has been unable to get this team over .500 as they are 33-39 during his tenure going 7-7 last year, they are 35-31 ATS.
Toledo is 6-3 as a home dog the past 4 years going 2-0 last year. They couldn’t stop anyone last year giving up an average of 38.0 ppg. Toledo has been at home to 6 BCS teams since 2001 and has a SU record of 5-1. They are 14-4 in home openers last 18.
Opinion: I have no idea by how much Arizona can with this game if at all with their terrible road opener record.
T-Rating Line: Arizona -15.34

• Look to teams that had poor winning record last year going against the superbowl champs… This is an angle that has shown profit year after year. A team that had a dissapointing showing the year before, can gain a lot of respect in hurry by beating the reigning Super Bowl champs. Incentive is the key word here.

• Analyze the coaching records in preseaon play….Some coaches are notorious for not caring whether they win or lose a preseason football, while others put a lot of stock in getting their teams in a positive winning attitude by winning in preseason. This angle has become increasing less valuable, as so many coaching changes have occured over the past few year, but still valuable for those that do have a track record.

• Look for teams in a “have to win” position….Some owners who have had poor attendance records due to losing teams two or three years in row, will instruct the coaches to go all out to win preseason games to regain the confidence of the fans and sell season tickets. There are also some coaches whose jobs maybe on the line and need to show some wins in preseason to keep them. Constant reading of teams local papers and press releases will give you a tip on this angle.

• Read all the coaches weekly press conference reports…Coaches will invariably tip off their game plan for an upcoming preseason game. Either they will be working on defense, or looking at rookies, or tuning up the offense. Read between the lines and you can get a good handle on how the game is going to be played. Two coaches stating they are working on their offense this week, could mean a high scoring game. A coach stating he has to make some cuts might be looking at a lot of rookies and the starters may see very little action. Many situations may come to light if you read, and can analyze what you are reading, in other words “read between the lines”.

• Watch the press releases for the QB rotations….This is one of the most telling angles for handicapping a preseason game. A coach with 3 or 4 rookies or free agents vying for a QB position may pick one or two games to get an extensive look at these QB’s. Many times in these situations, a starter may only handle the ball for one series. Rookie QB’s are prone to make mistakes that could very well cost a ball game. Getting a situation like this going against a coach who has stated he will playing his #1 for an entire half and his #2 the second half is a huge edge for the handicapper. You also want to give a big edge to teams whose backup QB’s are all veterans or at least mostly veterans. Even though though the starter may play less than a quarter, following up with two veterans versus a team with two rookies is a huge advantage..Veterans will not normally make the mistakes a rookie might make that could cost the ball game.

• My Favorite Angle….There are many more angles that come into play when handicapping preseason almost all of which require extensive reading. One of my favorites is a team with an extensive amount of free agents joining the team. They are already seasoned veterans not likely to make rookie mistakes, but need to get extra playing time to get acclimated to the offensive and defensive schemes. Getting a veteran matched up against a rookie is an overwhelming handicapping edge.

What makes it difficult to get an accurate estimate is the number of “barber shop bookies” throughout the US and around the world. The illegal bookmakers it is estimated, makes up nearly 50% of all sport betting action annually. What draws the public to the “windows” to place wagers on sporting events….? Of course many are drawn by the thrill of having “something riding” on a game and almost always can watch the outcome on a TV broadcast.

Why do the Vegas Sports Books put a TV next to a game on their board? Because they know that more action will come in on a game that is being televised than ones that are not. This alone may answer the question of how many sport bettors actually end the season or the year with a profit? Playing games just because they are on TV is certainly not going to put a sport bettor into profit.

General opinion by bookmakers estimate that less than 10% of all consistent sport bettors will end up with a profit at the end of the year. Most sport bettors do not have the expertise, the resources and the time to intelligently analyze a sporting event that will give them the edge against the bookmaker. Professional handicappers will spend many many hours each day analyzing statistics, reading press releases, studying injury reports, watching weather forecasts, tracking line movements, analyzing trends and comparing team and player matchups. Besides just the thrill having something riding on a sporting event, is the lure of those preying on the greedy. Many sport services (touts) advertise winning percentages that are nothing more than marketing ploys to reel in the sport bettor in search of making that “big hit”.

The reality is that anyone able to consistently predict the outcome of a game (against the spread) more than 60% of the time is in the top 10 to 15 percent of all handicappers. We are not referring to the hobbyist handicapper here, the one who places a wager once in awhile on they’re Alma mater or a once a year wager on the Super Bowl. We are talking about those that place 200 or 300 wagers per year. The serious sport bettor who is out to make a living or at least a decent profit off his efforts will wager on at least 5 to 10 games each week and higher when football season overlaps the basketball season. So, how much can a serious sport make betting sports throughout the year? Answer: how big is your available bankroll to get started? The expectation of the novice or unsuspecting sport bettor is invariably far above the realm of reality. This is in part, as mentioned above, is caused by the outlandish advertising claims of the some sport betting advisors and services. Claims of winning 70% or 80% of all their games, or that you can make 100 times your starting bankroll in one season….etc. Our example of a really good handicapper being able to win 60% of his wagers is very accurate, you can trust me on that one….

To prove this point, why is it that the biggest football handicapping contest in the world (The Super Contest), which is at the Las Vegas Hilton, and draws some of the best handicappers from throughout the world, offers a $10,000.00 bonus to anyone who correctly picks 63% or 66% (forgive me but the exact number escapes me at the moment) during the contest. The contest requires each entry to pick 5 NFL games per week for 17 weeks. That’s a total of 85 games, which means if someone could correctly pick 56 winners of those 85 games, they would collect the 10K bonus. So you can see that the average Joe hitting 60% is quite an extraordinary feat. Now here is the reality of making money by betting sports….Let’s assume you have a starting bankroll of say $1000.00 and you are going to wager on average 5 games per week. If you placed a $100.00 wager on each of your 5 games and you made a total of say 200 wagers over the year, you would have a total outlay of $22,000.00. This is including the 10% commission the books add to the wager. So if you make a $100.00 wager, you must put up $110.00 to win $100.00. This is sometimes called the “juice” or the “vig”. This is how the bookmakers stay in business. They make 10% off the bet off all the losers, which is one reason it is difficult to beat the books. They adjust betting lines so they can keep the action on a game as close to 50-50 as possible….They keep the $10.00 of the losing bets while the winner gets his initial $110.00 wager plus the $100.00 win. So if a book had say 100 wagers at 100 each which would be 10,000 wagered on one game and 50 of the bettors had side A and the other side B, this is the perfect scenario for the book, because they profit no matter who wins the game. Let’s use our example of your $100.00 wager on 200 games over the course of a season, and let’s say you are a good handicapper and are able win 60% of those games….I must point out here, they you need to win at least 53% of those games to break even, just because of the Vig as mentioned above. Ok, so you wagered a total of $22,000.00 over the season, at 60% you won 120 of those 200 games. You will get back $210.00 for each of the games you won (the $110.00 you put up plus the $100.00 you won) which gives you a total return of $25,200.00 return, or a $3,200.00 profit for the year….That is the reality. Now look at someone who is wagering only $10.00 or $20.00 per game and you see that the reality is, you need a big starting bankroll to make a living at betting sports. Even at the $3200.00 profit, you certainly cannot consider that as making a living….And again we are assuming you are a “good” handicapper picking winners at 60%.

Fortunately, most sport bettors are recreational or hobbyist players and not out to make a living. Just seeing even a small profit at the end of the year can be very gratifying for them and fulfills their desire to add to the excitement of the game. Over the past 16 years of providing sport betting advice to my clients, it is gratifying to me when even a small player is making even a small profit off my service…I have never failed to make a profit for my clients in the 18 years I have been in business….However, the reality is: you may not get rich.

If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding that 1 or 2 point advantage. Astute handicappers and sport bettors are constantly “shopping the line” on a game they have an interest in betting, looking for that ½ point that could swing a loser into a winner. One way to find that “edge” is knowing what the “real” home field advantage is for a given game matchup. Bookmakers will arbitrarily assign a 3 point line advantage to the home team in the NFL and 4 points to the home team in college matchups.

Taking the time to track the home and away point differential can mean the difference between a winning and a losing season. The 3 and 4 points the books assign to the home teams in football, will usually average out to be fairly close at the end of a season, but these averages are made up of teams that have much less or much higher “real” home advantage. A few years ago a college team actually had a 8.0 point real home advantage and we ended up cashing at least 3 tickets on that team during the season that we would most likely have not even have had considered a play.

Figuring the “real” home field advantage may take a little extra time in your handicapping process, but is not that difficult. Using the linesmakers opening line on a game as our common denominator, we want to determine by the results of the game, how much better against the point differential the bookmakers feel they should win or lose. We track this separately for home and away games.

Example: If the linesmaker determines the home team should win by say 10 points by posting a 10 point spread and that team actually wins the game say by 17 points, then that team played 7 points better in their home game than what was expected. By dividing the difference (7 points) by 10, we have an adjustment to the home field advantage of 0.07 points. If this team had a 4.0 home advantage going into the game, their adjusted real home field advantage would now be 4.07 points per game. Taking the road teams performance, they played 7 points below expectation and therefore we assume they would have played better at home so they also would get the .07 added to their home field advantage, so if their home field advantage going into the game was 4.0, they would now have a 4.07 advantage when playing at home.

The opposite of course holds true when a team plays below expectations. Let’s say the team mentioned above only won the game by 3 points. They played 7 points below expectation and therefore the .07 must be deducted from their home advantage. So their home advantage would now be 3.93. The road team actually played better on the road than anticipated which would diminish their home field advantage number and they would be deducted the .07 from their existing home field advantage.

Anytime a home team plays better than expected (against the spread) they gain points, when the result is less than expected they are deducted points. When the road teams plays better than expected, they are deducted points from their home field advantage when they play below expectations, points are added to their home field advantage.

By the middle of the season you could find a matchup that would give you a 3 or 4 point advantage over the bookmaker. Some teams consistently play as good on the road as they do at home and therefore have very little home field advantage. On the other hand, some teams perform week after week better at home than on the road and have a much better home field advantage…Getting a matchup with a road team that plays as good on the road as they do at home, versus a team with a poor home field advantage, takes away the 4 points home advantage the books add to the spread. This is a huge advantage when handicapping this game.

My thoughts are, that if you play the dog on the runline getting +1.5 runs, 90% of the time you have to lay money to get the runs and most of the time they are on the road..For the amount of time the runline will come into play as the deciding factor in winning your runline bet…(about 10%), it just mathematically don’t add up to a winning situation…

Here you are laying juice to back what is obviously the worst of the two teams, otherwise they wouldn’t be a dog. “In my opinion” it just doesn’t make any sense to me to lay the juice backing a team that is not expected to win. The one exception to taking the +1.5 is when you have the benefit of “getting” money to the line. Having a team getting 1.5 runs and not having to lay the juice can’t be all bad, however, when this situation occurs, the favorite is usually and overwhelming favorite of 2.00 and up and your odds of winning are even less.

If I like and underdog enough to consider playing them on the runline, then I would rather take my chances and play them straight and get the benefit of getting “plus money” on my bet.

Many of you showed your concern about the 2nd half of the baseball season and how most services seem to falter the first two weeks of the 2nd half of the season, now I am getting e-mails about concerns about the upcoming trades and how it will impact the handicapping process.

My reponse to this is basically the same as to the concerns about the 2nd half capping….NONE ! In fact it works in our favor.

• My favorite angle is the “free agent” angle. A team that has picked up a lot of free agents or made trades during the off-season will normally give these players some extra playing time so they can get familiar with the team playbook and offensive and defensive schemes. These are almost always veterans who many times will be matched up against the opposing teams rookies and players the coaches are looking at to make roster decisions.
• The coaching angle has not been as solid in the past few years, as there are so many coaching changes and new head coaches that preseason patterns have not been formed. There are coaches that historically do not give a hoot about winning preseason games, while others year after year want to build on the confidence factor for players and fans, and win as many preseason games as possible.
• “The Quarterback rotation factor” is extremely important. Coaches will invariably announce a few days in advance their intentions of who will play and for how long at QB. This is vitally important as there is always a game or two where the starting QB may be scheduled to play well into the 2nd half. This will sometimes end up in a matchup where the opposing team is using there rookies or backups for most of the game.
• The “Quarterback depth factor” is also a big advantage. When you have a team that has 3 backups that all have 3 or 5 years experience in the NFL and / or have had some starts, this is a big advantage over a team where all backups are rookies or second year players. The experienced backup is less prone to make rookie type mistakes that could cost them the ball game.
• The “0-3 Factor” has proven to be very profitable in preseason. Even coaches who do not care if they win or lose in preseason do not want to finish the preseason without a win. Teams going into week 4 or 5 of preseason without a win are teams you want to pay close attention.
• The “Final Tune-up” factor can catch you a nice easy winner. Coaches always have one game where they want to give the starters a final tuneup and keep them in the game sometimes for as much as 3 quarters. Depending on the coach and the situation, this is usually the 3rd of 4th game of preseason. The final game of the season is used by coaches for looking at rookies and players on the bubble before cut time. Catching a game where the coach is using as his tuneup for starters against a team looking at rookies will almost always guarantee you a win.
• The “Show me the Money” factor is one where a team may be coming off a disappointing season and the owners are sweating out the lack of season ticket sales. They will on occasion instruct the coaching staff to try and get some wins in preseason to get back the confidence of the fans and increase ticket sales.
• The “On the chopping block” factor is one where the head coach’s job is hanging by a string. With his job on the line he will always be looking to rack up wins in preseason.
• Total plays can be profitable in preseason when reading that say, both teams are going to concentrating on the same thing, such as improving offense or defense or the running game or passing game…Two teams who are using the game to concentrate on improving offense will more often than not, get you an easy win on a “over” play. Of course the opposite holds true when concentrating on defense. A team vowing to work on the running game will also tend to be a good under play. A team who is coming off a very bad offensive performance, will invariably be looking to work on offense in the next game and the same holds true for the defense.