Posts Tagged ‘Football’

Handicapping bowl games has a few different things to consider when trying to beat the line. You obviously still have to take your normal statistical handicapping formulas into consideration, but there are situations that are unique to handicapping bowl games. Here are the ones I consider to be important when doing your analyzation.
#1 – Look for teams coming into their bowl with momentum…I like to look at the last 3 games. Teams coming in on winning streaks are more to my favor than teams that have lost their last game or 2 out of 3 of their last 3 games.

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Philadelphia @ Washington

After their humiliating upset loss last week to the lowly Raiders, the Eagles should be soaring high this week. They travel to Washington installed as a 7 point favorite. The Redskins have covered the last 3 of 4 meetings in this series but the Eagles have covered 7 of the last 10 when at Washington. The Eagles managed only 9 points last week against the Raiders and in games following scoring 10 or less they are 6-0 in the last 6 situations. They are also in double revenge as they dropped both games to the Redskins last year and both times as a favorite.

Washington managed only 6 points in their game last week against the basement dwelling Kansas City Chiefs in a 14-6 upset loss at home. They are 1-10 vs opponent following an upset loss. Unlike the Eagles bouncing back after a low scoring game, the Redskins are only 1-5-1 following scoring 10 or less..

Your free pick…..Eagles by 17…!!!

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Sunday October 18 in the NFL was one of the most bizarre, (weirdest) days I have ever seen….From a handicapping standpoint, at least for me, it was a disaster….We saw one of the worst teams in the league pull off a upset over what many consider one of the best teams in the league as a 14.5 point underdog, of course I’m talking about the Raiders beating the Eagles. (Read full Article Here)

NY Jets -2.5 @ Miami Dolphins (36.5)

Much focus on the QB situation as Henne will be making only his second start of his young career and Sanchez making only his 4th start…

The Jets have been seeing most of the action this week and wouldn’t be surprised to see the books move the line to -3.0 by game time…It is not surprising the Jets are getting the action as they are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series and 6-0 when playing at Miami..They suffered their first defeat last week losing at N. Orleans 24-10…

Jets will also be in a revenge situation as it was the Dolphins on the final week of last season that handed the Jets a 24-17 loss at NY thus knocking the Jets out of the playoffs…

It should be somewhat of a “slow down” game as Miami will certainly focus on the running game where they lead the NFL with Ronny Brown and Ricky Williams…however this plays into the Jets defensive strength of being ranked 4th against the run while Miami is ranked 2nd against the run…The Jets have allowed only 3 td’s this season and this being done against 4 teams that are ranked in the upper 50% in the league….They have allowed 300 total yards only once this season and that was in the loss to N. Orleans where the Saints put up two defensive touchdowns. The defense should dominate in this game with 2 Qb’s with only 5 combined starts in the NFL. That coupled with a time consuming running game by the Dolphins this should be a low scoring event and I am going with the Under 36.5
Recommended Play: Under 36.5

 The addition of Braylon Edwards from Cleveland should help the Jets offensively, but don’t look for him to have much of an impact tonight being his first game with the Jets.

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If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding that 1 or 2 point advantage. Astute handicappers and sport bettors are constantly “shopping the line” on a game they have an interest in betting, looking for that ½ point that could swing a loser into a winner. One way to find that “edge” is knowing what the “real” home field advantage is for a given game matchup. Bookmakers will arbitrarily assign a 3 point line advantage to the home team in the NFL and 4 points to the home team in college matchups.

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