Southern Miss at South Carolina -14.0 (47.0)
Southern Miss is 2-11 in road openers and have lost the last 5 by average of 15 ppg. They lose 8 starters on offense including 1000 yard rusher Damion Fletcher.
Since Spurrier has taken over the helm at South Carolina, the Gamecocks have not been known for explosive offense, they average slightly over 20.0 per game the past two seasons and 23.6 in his 5 years. This may change a little as they are returning 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball. They will be without standout TE Weslye Saunders who has been suspended and Spurrier has given no indication about his return date. Gamecocks have won 10 consecutive opening games and Steve Spurrier is 24-1 as a head coach in openers.
Opinion: None…South Carolina will win but averaging only 20 pts per game makes it very iffy to cover a 14 point spread.
T-Rating Line: South Carolina -14.16 

Marshall at Ohio State -28.5 (47.5)
This is one of those opening day non-conference mismatches. Marshall loses leading rusher Darius Marshall who had 1177 yards on the ground last year. They have lost 10 straight openers by an average of 23 ppg, they are 1-13 vs ranked FBS opponents.
Ohio State has their sights set on a national championship this year. They return 9 starters on an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg last year. They have won 31 consecutive home openers.
Opinion: …Would consider a small play on OSU if could get the line down to 27 or less..Easy win for the Buckeyes but tough to lay 4 TD’s+ in an opening game.
T-Rating Line: Ohio State -29.97

Northern Illinois at Iowa State -3.5 (47.5)
Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference road games. Under HC Jerry Kill, they went from giving up 31 points per game in 2007 to just 18 in 2008 and 22 in 2009 and could improve on that as they return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball.
Iowa State is in somewhat of a look ahead situation as they face in-state rival Iowa next week where they will be seeking revenge following last years embarrassing 35-3 defeat. They are 10-1 in home openers the last 11 years. They were very respectable on defense also as they gave up only 21.8 average.
Opinion: I may be looking at an under play on the total in this game. Will have to do more research..No opinion on the side play
T-Rating Line: Iowa State -4.10

Pittsburgh at Utah -2.5 (49.5)
** Diamond Club 2 Diamond Member Selection

USC -21.0 at Hawaii (53.0)
USC loses 6 starters on both sides of the ball including 1000 yard rusher Joe McKnight and their two leading receivers Damian Williams and Anthony McCoy. Starting QB Sophomore Matt Barkley was mediocre at best in his first season, with a 15 to 14 TD to Interception ratio and a 56.9% completion, with their lowest points for average in the past 10 years (26.5). They have won their last 12 season openers and hold 28-1 record against the WAC.  They were only 2-5 ATS last year as a road favorite.
Hawaii 23 points per game last year was the lowest output in over a decade. The 30 allowed was the most since 2005. Hawaii is 0-6 versus USC with an average score of 19-62.
Opinion: These are two teams with a lot of questions to be answered. No way to figure this one out. Just stay away from it.
T-Rating Line: USC -21.03

Minnesota -3.0 at Mid Tennessee (48.5)
Minnesota struggled on offense last year averaging 20.9 per game the lowest average in the last 7 years. It may improve however as they return 9 starters to the offense. The defense maybe the problem for them this year as they lose 9 starters on that side of the ball.  They are 8-2 as non-conf road favorite the last 10 situations.
Middle Tennessee will be without starting QB Dwight Dasher, they will be starting a JC transfer sophomore QB. They are coming off a very good 10-3 season and have most of their key players returning. However, they are 1-5 in non-conference home openers the past 6 years.
Opinion: This was going to be a small play for me but the suspension of the starting QB has to keep me off the game.
T-Rating Line: Minnesota -1.25

Friday August 3
Arizona -14.5 at Toledo (60.0)
Arizona doesn’t fare well as a big road favorite, they are 0-6 as a rd fav of 4 points or more in the last 6 situations. Arizona is 0-8 in road openers last 8 years, but 5-0 versus MAC opponents in the last 5 meetings. They return 10 starters to the offense but lose 7 on the defensive side. After a 10-3 season in 2008 Mike Stoops has been unable to get this team over .500 as they are 33-39 during his tenure going 7-7 last year, they are 35-31 ATS.
Toledo is 6-3 as a home dog the past 4 years going 2-0 last year. They couldn’t stop anyone last year giving up an average of 38.0 ppg. Toledo has been at home to 6 BCS teams since 2001 and has a SU record of 5-1. They are 14-4 in home openers last 18.
Opinion: I have no idea by how much Arizona can with this game if at all with their terrible road opener record.
T-Rating Line: Arizona -15.34

• Look to teams that had poor winning record last year going against the superbowl champs… This is an angle that has shown profit year after year. A team that had a dissapointing showing the year before, can gain a lot of respect in hurry by beating the reigning Super Bowl champs. Incentive is the key word here.

• Analyze the coaching records in preseaon play….Some coaches are notorious for not caring whether they win or lose a preseason football, while others put a lot of stock in getting their teams in a positive winning attitude by winning in preseason. This angle has become increasing less valuable, as so many coaching changes have occured over the past few year, but still valuable for those that do have a track record.

• Look for teams in a “have to win” position….Some owners who have had poor attendance records due to losing teams two or three years in row, will instruct the coaches to go all out to win preseason games to regain the confidence of the fans and sell season tickets. There are also some coaches whose jobs maybe on the line and need to show some wins in preseason to keep them. Constant reading of teams local papers and press releases will give you a tip on this angle.

• Read all the coaches weekly press conference reports…Coaches will invariably tip off their game plan for an upcoming preseason game. Either they will be working on defense, or looking at rookies, or tuning up the offense. Read between the lines and you can get a good handle on how the game is going to be played. Two coaches stating they are working on their offense this week, could mean a high scoring game. A coach stating he has to make some cuts might be looking at a lot of rookies and the starters may see very little action. Many situations may come to light if you read, and can analyze what you are reading, in other words “read between the lines”.

• Watch the press releases for the QB rotations….This is one of the most telling angles for handicapping a preseason game. A coach with 3 or 4 rookies or free agents vying for a QB position may pick one or two games to get an extensive look at these QB’s. Many times in these situations, a starter may only handle the ball for one series. Rookie QB’s are prone to make mistakes that could very well cost a ball game. Getting a situation like this going against a coach who has stated he will playing his #1 for an entire half and his #2 the second half is a huge edge for the handicapper. You also want to give a big edge to teams whose backup QB’s are all veterans or at least mostly veterans. Even though though the starter may play less than a quarter, following up with two veterans versus a team with two rookies is a huge advantage..Veterans will not normally make the mistakes a rookie might make that could cost the ball game.

• My Favorite Angle….There are many more angles that come into play when handicapping preseason almost all of which require extensive reading. One of my favorites is a team with an extensive amount of free agents joining the team. They are already seasoned veterans not likely to make rookie mistakes, but need to get extra playing time to get acclimated to the offensive and defensive schemes. Getting a veteran matched up against a rookie is an overwhelming handicapping edge.

If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding that 1 or 2 point advantage. Astute handicappers and sport bettors are constantly “shopping the line” on a game they have an interest in betting, looking for that ½ point that could swing a loser into a winner. One way to find that “edge” is knowing what the “real” home field advantage is for a given game matchup. Bookmakers will arbitrarily assign a 3 point line advantage to the home team in the NFL and 4 points to the home team in college matchups.

Taking the time to track the home and away point differential can mean the difference between a winning and a losing season. The 3 and 4 points the books assign to the home teams in football, will usually average out to be fairly close at the end of a season, but these averages are made up of teams that have much less or much higher “real” home advantage. A few years ago a college team actually had a 8.0 point real home advantage and we ended up cashing at least 3 tickets on that team during the season that we would most likely have not even have had considered a play.

Figuring the “real” home field advantage may take a little extra time in your handicapping process, but is not that difficult. Using the linesmakers opening line on a game as our common denominator, we want to determine by the results of the game, how much better against the point differential the bookmakers feel they should win or lose. We track this separately for home and away games.

Example: If the linesmaker determines the home team should win by say 10 points by posting a 10 point spread and that team actually wins the game say by 17 points, then that team played 7 points better in their home game than what was expected. By dividing the difference (7 points) by 10, we have an adjustment to the home field advantage of 0.07 points. If this team had a 4.0 home advantage going into the game, their adjusted real home field advantage would now be 4.07 points per game. Taking the road teams performance, they played 7 points below expectation and therefore we assume they would have played better at home so they also would get the .07 added to their home field advantage, so if their home field advantage going into the game was 4.0, they would now have a 4.07 advantage when playing at home.

The opposite of course holds true when a team plays below expectations. Let’s say the team mentioned above only won the game by 3 points. They played 7 points below expectation and therefore the .07 must be deducted from their home advantage. So their home advantage would now be 3.93. The road team actually played better on the road than anticipated which would diminish their home field advantage number and they would be deducted the .07 from their existing home field advantage.

Anytime a home team plays better than expected (against the spread) they gain points, when the result is less than expected they are deducted points. When the road teams plays better than expected, they are deducted points from their home field advantage when they play below expectations, points are added to their home field advantage.

By the middle of the season you could find a matchup that would give you a 3 or 4 point advantage over the bookmaker. Some teams consistently play as good on the road as they do at home and therefore have very little home field advantage. On the other hand, some teams perform week after week better at home than on the road and have a much better home field advantage…Getting a matchup with a road team that plays as good on the road as they do at home, versus a team with a poor home field advantage, takes away the 4 points home advantage the books add to the spread. This is a huge advantage when handicapping this game.

• My favorite angle is the “free agent” angle. A team that has picked up a lot of free agents or made trades during the off-season will normally give these players some extra playing time so they can get familiar with the team playbook and offensive and defensive schemes. These are almost always veterans who many times will be matched up against the opposing teams rookies and players the coaches are looking at to make roster decisions.
• The coaching angle has not been as solid in the past few years, as there are so many coaching changes and new head coaches that preseason patterns have not been formed. There are coaches that historically do not give a hoot about winning preseason games, while others year after year want to build on the confidence factor for players and fans, and win as many preseason games as possible.
• “The Quarterback rotation factor” is extremely important. Coaches will invariably announce a few days in advance their intentions of who will play and for how long at QB. This is vitally important as there is always a game or two where the starting QB may be scheduled to play well into the 2nd half. This will sometimes end up in a matchup where the opposing team is using there rookies or backups for most of the game.
• The “Quarterback depth factor” is also a big advantage. When you have a team that has 3 backups that all have 3 or 5 years experience in the NFL and / or have had some starts, this is a big advantage over a team where all backups are rookies or second year players. The experienced backup is less prone to make rookie type mistakes that could cost them the ball game.
• The “0-3 Factor” has proven to be very profitable in preseason. Even coaches who do not care if they win or lose in preseason do not want to finish the preseason without a win. Teams going into week 4 or 5 of preseason without a win are teams you want to pay close attention.
• The “Final Tune-up” factor can catch you a nice easy winner. Coaches always have one game where they want to give the starters a final tuneup and keep them in the game sometimes for as much as 3 quarters. Depending on the coach and the situation, this is usually the 3rd of 4th game of preseason. The final game of the season is used by coaches for looking at rookies and players on the bubble before cut time. Catching a game where the coach is using as his tuneup for starters against a team looking at rookies will almost always guarantee you a win.
• The “Show me the Money” factor is one where a team may be coming off a disappointing season and the owners are sweating out the lack of season ticket sales. They will on occasion instruct the coaching staff to try and get some wins in preseason to get back the confidence of the fans and increase ticket sales.
• The “On the chopping block” factor is one where the head coach’s job is hanging by a string. With his job on the line he will always be looking to rack up wins in preseason.
• Total plays can be profitable in preseason when reading that say, both teams are going to concentrating on the same thing, such as improving offense or defense or the running game or passing game…Two teams who are using the game to concentrate on improving offense will more often than not, get you an easy win on a “over” play. Of course the opposite holds true when concentrating on defense. A team vowing to work on the running game will also tend to be a good under play. A team who is coming off a very bad offensive performance, will invariably be looking to work on offense in the next game and the same holds true for the defense.

Underrated…..Overrated

I have released my first two future plays for the upcoming NFL season, playing the "totals" futures of over and under on two teams of one is overrated and the other underrated New Orleans Saints…"over" 10.5 +1.10 bodog …Underrated….The Saints are the reigning superbowl champs coming off a 13-3 season. They are returning nearly the entire team and coaching staff from a year ago. Although the schedule may be a little tougher this year, how can the linesmakers assume they will have a 3 game drop off….I look for them to repeat the 13-3 season and at the very worst…11-5. NY Jets "under" 9.5 -1.15 bodog …Overrated…The Jet's made it to the playoffs last year with a 9-7 record. They were carried the entire season on the strength of their defense which ranked #1 in 3 of the 4 defensive categories…The offense may improve a little with Sanchez having another year experience under his belt, but if they think the acquiring of Tomlinson is the end all to the superbowl, well I believe they are sadly mistaken. Last year they were 17th in points scored, 20th in yards gained and 31st in passing. Nothing improves here except maybe the passing rank.

We are going for 19th consecutive winning football season. Our "Early Bird Football Season Special" Is Now Available tonydiamondsports

More than 80 years have past since the Boilermakers of Purdue won the Big Ten title in 1929. It appears it will be 81 years after this season. Having lost 6 starters on offense and 5 on defense, some think that would be an improvement for them, but losing starting QB Joey Elliott will be hard to make up. He had a 61.7 completion rate, threw for 3026 yards and 22 touchdowns. They also lost their top three rushers including Ralph Bolden a 1000 yard gainer last year with a 4.7 yard per carry average. On defense they lose their top tackler in Tom Williams They went 5-7 last year averaging 27.8 points per game which will most likely not be matched this year with loss of Elliott. There are some high expectations at the QB position with the recent Miami transfer Robert Marve who had 11 starts with Miami in 2008 and threw for 1293 yards. But because of the one year wait period for tranfers, he has been out of football since '08 which puts a big question mark on his current condition and sharpness. The Boilermakers could get to the 6 win plateau this season but the start off non-conference at Notre Dame who they have beaten only once in the last 12 meetings. They get a break in week two, three and four. Their second game they host Western Illinois who is 0-10 against BCS teams. Week three they have Ball St who they have a 7-0 record against in the last 7 meetings and then Toledo who the Boilermakers have won 11 of 12 meetings…after that it starts to get ugly. Upcoming the have at Minnesota, Ohio St, at Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan St and Indiana. I can see a possible at Minnesota and Illinois and Indiana which would give them a 6-6 record on the season. They did get somewhat of a scheduling break as the don't have to face Iowa or Penn State this year. They finished 7th in the conference last season and I can see them moving up maybe one spot and finishing 6th.

Watch For Our "Early Bird Football Special" …

Get our Free Complimentary Best Bet in our free sport betting newsletter tonydiamondsports

  ]]> http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/07/07/college-football-notebook-purdue/feed/ 2 http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/06/29/betting-the-nfl-futures/ http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/06/29/betting-the-nfl-futures/#comments Tue, 29 Jun 2010 17:29:41 +0000 Tony Diamond http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=416

Making a future bet before the season starts, means that you will have your money tied up with the book for nearly 6 months. That being the case you certainly want a decent return, kind of like accruing interest on your money. Unless your putting down a sizable amount of money on a single future bet, it is not feasible to bet a future on a 2-1 or 5-2 favorite. Any way you cut it, your odds are still 31 against you…Obviously the realistic odds are probably around 20/1 as there are always at least 10 or 12 teams that you can throw out as not having any kind of a chance of making it to the playoffs much less the Superbowl.

I like to make at least 2 future bets to win the Superbowl, one in the NFC and one in the AFC..I more often than not make two plays in each conference. If your playing 3 or 4 plays, it becomes obvious that you don't want to play a 2/1 favorite, you could win the 2/1 bet and still end up losing money on your future bets. I look for odds that will give me a "hedging" opportunity. Over the years I have made more money hedging future bets than winning the future bet itself. Again to have good hedging opportunities you need

to have good odds.

The first thing I do when looking for a good future bet, is to throw out the favorites with odds of less than 10/1. I then throw out the obvious teams that have little chance of making the playoffs. Usually after this excercise I am left with maybe 15 to 20 teams. Next I want to look for teams that have a chance of winning their division, of course these are ones that are left after getting rid of the favorites.

I am looking for teams that have an outside chance of making the playoffs and have good odds. Getting to the playoffs will give you the hedging opportunity we discussed earlier. For this reason I play only to win the Superbowl, I do not play futures to win the Division or the Conference. More on "hedging" future bets in upcoming articles.

Today: Tuesday June 29th is our Guaranteed Tuesday…Sign up for our one day $15.00 package get all member selection and if we don't have a winning day, I will refund your membership fee… tonydiamondsports

Get our Complimentary Best Bet Emailed Daily now on 8-2 run 

tonydiamondsports

They have practically their entire team of 2009 returning and all the coaching staff. This is a team that offensively were 1st in points 31.9, 1st in yards with 403.8. They return the entire offensive line and have great depth in the receiving corp. If they had any concerns from last year, it was a defense that ranked 20th to 25th in all categories. They were however a very oportunistic unit as they were 2nd in takeaways. I look for a great improvement from the defense overall.

Of course their schedule will be a little tougher this year with question marks on 5 games. They play the AFC north in their non coference games which is a pretty tough division with the likes of Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. They also have to face the Cowboy’s and Vikings in non-divisional games. They will be playing 8 teams this year that finished with a winning record, and 5 teams that were in the playoffs.

It won’t be cake-walk for sure but until I dig deeper into my analysis of the entire league, I would have to say that they certainly are in line for a repeat…The very worst I can see them ending is 11-5 and I really can’t see anyone vying for the division title against them.

As always, we have to start to adjust our power rating numbers to account for the graduates and transfers. Also as mentioned above you have to make adjustments for the first part of the season for the players who have been suspended for the first games of the season.

Get our complimentary best bet daily in our Diamond Line Newsletter… www.tonydiamondsports.com

• Total QB Sacks: “over” 3.5 +200
• Will There be 3 Unanswered Scores: No +140
• Will There Be One Scoreless Quarter: Yes +325
• The Largest Lead By Either Team: “under” 15.5 -1.15
• Addai over 65.5 rushing yards -1.15
• Garcon to score a TD “yes” +1.35

Guaranteed Play of the Day..It Wins or You Don’t Pay..!!

www.tonydiamondsports.com

Guaranteed Play of the Day Now On 34-11-3(75.5%) Run…20-8-1 (71.4%) In 2010.. Season to Date: 67-28-3 (70.5%).