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	<title>Tony Diamond Sports blog</title>
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	<description>Professional Sports Handicapping Articles</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Mon, 06 Sep 2010 21:50:36 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Monday CFB: Boise St vs Virginia Tech</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/06/monday-cfb-boise-st-vs-virginia-tech/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/06/monday-cfb-boise-st-vs-virginia-tech/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Sep 2010 15:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=953</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By now sport bettors and college football enthusiasts have to be aware of the implications surrounding this game for Boise St. They have shot at playing for the BCS Championship if they can run the table and go undefeated. This game against the Hokies of Virginia Tech is by far the toughest game on their schedule [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By now sport bettors and college football enthusiasts have to be aware of the implications surrounding this game for Boise St. They have shot at playing for the BCS Championship if they can run the table and go undefeated. This game against the Hokies of Virginia Tech is by far the toughest game on their schedule and could be the deciding factor as to whether they play in the championship game.</p>
<p>This basically a &#8220;pick &#8216;em&#8221; game with Vir Tech currently sitting as a 1 point favorite.<span id="more-953"></span> They game is on a neutral field being played FedEx field in Lanover MD. From a geographic standpoint this may give a slight edge to the Hokies in relationship to distance and may see more of a &#8220;home crowd&#8221;. Boise went 14-0 last year and outscored their opponents by a whopping 25 points per game (42-17), but you must take into consideration the caliber of teams they play in the WAC conference. They did beat a good Oregon team last year in the opening week. They currently have a 56 game home winning streak.</p>
<p>They return &#8220;20&#8243; starters this year, 10 on each side of the ball, which would indicate a repeat of the 2009 season, they can&#8217;t do any better. Coach Chris Peterson is in his fifth year and has racked up a 49-4 record in his first four. Although it is not what you consider a road dog role seeing as it is only a 1 point spread, they are 5-1 against the spread when a road dog the past 4 years. Boise has won four of their last 5 games against BCS teams. Overall they are 21-2 when on the road the last 23 games away from the blue carpet.</p>
<p>They have two RB&#8217;s that combined for nearly 2000 yards last year (1982) and two Wr&#8217;s that also combined for nearly 2000 yards (1896). Starting QB Kellen Moore threw for 3536 yards with an unbelievable 39-3 TD to INT ratio. Their is little doubt this unit will put points on the board. They will be tested for sure as defense minded coach Frank Beamer teams of Vir Tech in the last 4 years have allowed an average 15.0 points per game.</p>
<p>Virginia Tech went 10-3 last year but ended their season going 5-0 including a huge bowl game win over Tennessee in the Chick-fil-a bowl 37-14. They return 8 starters on a offensive unit that averaged 32 point per game last year and nearly 400 yards. They RB Ryan Williams returns having racked up 1720 yards last year and QB Tyrod Taylor had 570 yards on the ground. Tech may have some question marks on defense as they lose 7 starters from a year ago including their leading tackler, their leading sack man and 2 defensive backs.</p>
<p>My opinion on this game is that it is a good one to sit back and enjoy and keep your bankroll in the bank. Had VT not lost the defensive players they did, I would be considering the play on the Hokies. I make my T-Rating line at Boise -0.85, basically a pick &#8216;em game. I would however be looking at a play on the total to go over 50.0 Both teams obviously have the starters returning on offense that can put up points, but with Tech&#8217;s defense being a little suspect, this could be a game in the range of 28-27 or 30-27.</p>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">We are going for 19th consecutive winning football season and have a &#8220;Early Bird Football Season Special&#8221; that gives you all our Diamond Rated Selections in all sports from now right through the Superbowl. Click the banner on this page for details. Or go to:<a href="http://www.tonydiamondsports.com"> TonyDiamondSports</a></span></strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;"> </span></strong></p>
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		<title>Stupid Unexplainable Decision Cost Us 3 Diamond POD</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/05/stupid-unexplainable-decision-cost-us-3-diamond-pod/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/05/stupid-unexplainable-decision-cost-us-3-diamond-pod/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Sep 2010 03:05:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Everything Else]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=946</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stupid, Unexplainable Call Cost Us 3 Diamond Play of the Day&#8230;..Our POD on Sunday was a 3 diamond play on Texas Tech at -13.5&#8230; Were certainly not going to win them all, but if your going to beat me then, outplay my pick, outsmart my pick, but don&#8217;t beat me with stupid uncalled for and [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #0000ff;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><strong><span style="font-size: small;">Stupid, Unexplainable Call Cost Us 3 Diamond Play of the Day&#8230;..</span></strong><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #000000;">Our POD on Sunday was a 3 diamond play on Texas Tech at -13.5&#8230;</span> <span style="color: #000000;">Were certainly not going to win them all, but if your going to beat me then, outplay my pick, outsmart my pick, but don&#8217;t beat me with stupid uncalled for and unexpainable decisions. Why would any coach, much less one with the experience of Texas Tech&#8217;s Tuberville, choose to go for a 4th down conversion, with 8 minutes left in the game, up by 15 points and on your &#8220;own&#8221; 32 yard line&#8230;.??? Your emphasizing defense, your defense is playing well and you have the opportunity to pin your opponent deep in their own end of the field and you call a quarterback sneak which ends up with the QB fumbling the ball and your opponent is in good field position needing only two scores to tie the game&#8230;<span id="more-946"></span>Very Stupid and Unexplainable call which ended up costing us our 3 diamond play and our play of the day. SMU went on to score a TD which was the only scoring for the rest of the game which proved to be the TD which gave them the backdoor cover and costing us the win&#8230;.</span></span></span></span></span></div>
<div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #0000ff;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #0000ff;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"></span></span></span></div>
<p><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="color: #0000ff;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"></p>
<div><span style="color: #000000;"> </span></div>
<div><span style="color: #000000;"><span style="font-size: small;">You never hear me complaining about losing a game, but this was one of the most absurd and unecessary beats we can expect to experience&#8230;.No it&#8217;s not the 3 units, or the negative notch on the POD record, it&#8217;s a matter of getting a fair shake with players making or breaking the game, not a stupid call by a coach that can no way be justified as to why it was made&#8230;.Maybe he had a couple dimes on SMU +13. </span></span></div>
<p> </p>
<p></span></span></span></p>
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		<title>It’s Back ON!</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/04/its-back-on/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/04/its-back-on/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Sep 2010 18:00:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=525</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Because of the flood of emails we received asking for our Early Bird Special after it ended, we decided to bring it back for ONE WEEK ONLY! Get our football season package plus all the extra bonuses that will be attached this year to the &#8220;Early Bird Special&#8221;  Just click on my friend with the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.tonydiamondsports.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=31:2010-2011-football-season-early-bird-special-&amp;catid=2" target="_blank"><img style="vertical-align: middle; margin: 3px 6px;" src="http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/earlybirdbanner.png" alt="" width="372" height="115" /></a></p>
<h4><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Because of the flood of emails we received asking for our Early Bird Special after it ended, we decided to bring it back for ONE WEEK ONLY!</span></h4>
<h4><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Get our football season package plus all the extra bonuses that will be attached this year to the &#8220;Early Bird Special&#8221;  Just click on my friend with the playbook in his hand above to see for yourself just what we are offering&#8230;. </span></h4>
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #d13123;"><strong><span style="font-family: verdana,geneva;">Early Bird Special pricing for this Football Season Package Ends Permanently September 11th<br />
</span></strong></span></span></span><span style="color: #0000ff;"><strong><span style="font-family: verdana,geneva;"><span style="font-size: medium;">Midnight Pacific Time</span></span></strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center;">
<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #d13123;"><strong><span style="font-family: verdana,geneva;"><a href="http://www.tonydiamondsports.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=31:2010-2011-football-season-early-bird-special-&amp;catid=2" target="_blank"><br />
</a><a href="http://www.tonydiamondsports.com/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=31:2010-2011-football-season-early-bird-special-&amp;catid=2"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-836" title="details" src="http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/details1.png" alt="" width="278" height="83" /></a><br />
</span></strong></span></span></span></p>
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		<title>CFB: Week #1 Saturday 9/4</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/03/cfb-week-1-saturday-94/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/09/03/cfb-week-1-saturday-94/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Sep 2010 01:48:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=929</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Western Michigan @ Michigan State -24.0&#8230;.Big revenge situation here for Michigan State as they were totally embarrased last year by the Bronco&#8217;s on their home field getting beat 36-14 as a 24.5 home favorite. Opinion: Even though the revenge looms big, The Bronco&#8217;s might be able to hang within the 24 points. However the loss of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Western Michigan @ Michigan State -24.0</strong></span>&#8230;.Big revenge situation here for Michigan State as they were totally embarrased last year by the Bronco&#8217;s on their home field getting beat 36-14 as a 24.5 home favorite.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> Even though the revenge looms big, The Bronco&#8217;s might be able to hang within the 24 points. However the loss of starting QB might make it too &#8220;iffy&#8221; for a play.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Michigan State -17.53 <span id="more-929"></span></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Miami Ohio @ Florida -36.5</span></strong>&#8230;Miami Ohio was 1-11 last year and due in part that the QB had nearly twice as many rushing yards as their leading RB. (587 to 313). You can&#8217;t win many ball games averaging 70 on the ground. They had a whopping 22.0 offensive YPP. They do return all but one of starters on offense, but not so sure that&#8217;s a good thing seeing as they averaged only 16 points per game last year.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> Can&#8217;t waste any bankroll on this game, could be a blowout but may need a game to get in sync with the loss of key players on Florida&#8217;s offense.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Florida -35.95</p>
<p><strong>Illinois @ Missouri</strong>&#8230;..Diamond Club Member Selection</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Colorado -11.5 vs Colorado St @ Denver CO</span></strong>&#8230;These rivalry games at the beginning of the season are tough to handicap, actually their tough at anytime of the season, however revenge is big in these kind of games and Colorado will be in revenge having been upset last year 23-17 as a 12 point favorite.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> My number is right on and can&#8217;t find any edge to go either way<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Colorado -11.70</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Northwestern -3.5 @ Vanderbilt</span></strong>&#8230;<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> I had this game circled as a small play on Vandy, but with the starting QB expected out, I will stay clear.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Vanderbilt -2.73</p>
<p><strong>Memphis @ Mississippi St -21.0&#8230;Possible Diamond Club Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong>Texas -31.0 vs Rice&#8230;.</strong>13-1 team versus a 2-10 team, Texas 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings outscoring them 162 to 31.. not much else say here<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> None<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Texas -32.31</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Purdue @ Notre Dame -11.0</span></strong>&#8230;The Irish hold a 8-4 ATS advantage in the last 12 meetings, not covering last year as they won 24-21 as a 6.0 point favorite. Purdue is 5-1 as non-conf road dog the last 6 situations, but are 1-11 when at South Bend. They lose all 4 of their RB&#8217;s from a year plus their starting QB. The home team in this series has won 6 of the last 7 by an average of 17 ppg. Notre Dame is 13-3 as a home favorite of less than 24 points versus a sub .500 opponent. The loss of QB Clausen and 1496 yard leading receiver Golden Tate could prove challenging early on in the season.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> I believe this to be a very close game&#8230;might consider a small play on the Boilermakers with the 11.0 points.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Notre Dame -8.09</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Connecticut @ Michigan</span></strong>&#8230;The Huskies should improve on their 6-6 record of a year ago as they return 16 starters, 8 on each side of the ball. Last year they could have easily been 9-3 as they suffered 3 losses by a combined 15 points. Connecticut is 7-2 in non-conf road games and have won 4 straight road openers. They could very well by 6-0 going into their bye week on Oct 16. Then the schedule gets tough, but they should be right their for the conference championship. Michigan is 17-3 in home openers.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> I see a small upset here&#8230;.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Michigan -1.84</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Kentucky -3.0 @ Louisville&#8230;..<br />
</span>Opinion: None<br />
T-Rating Line:</strong> Pick &#8216;em</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">New Mexico @ Oregon -35.0<br />
</span>Opinion: None<br />
T-Rating Line:</strong> Oregon -29.65</p>
<p><strong>UCLA @ Kansas St -1.5&#8230;.</strong>UCLA is 14-2 in season openers last 16 yrs. This shouldn&#8217;t be, but could be a look ahead situation for them as they have their conference opener against Stanford next week which many consider to be the Pac 10 champion this year.<br />
<strong>Opinion: None<br />
T-Rating Line:</strong> UCLA -0.52</p>
<p><strong>Syracuse @ Akron&#8230;.Diamond Club Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong>Washington @ BYU&#8230;Diamond Club Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong>San Jose St @ Alabama&#8230;Diamond Club Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong>Cincinnati @ Fresno St&#8230;Diamond Club Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">Get All of Saturday&#8217;s Diamond Club Member Selections For Only $15.00&#8230;  </span><a href="http:www.tonydiamondsports.com">Tony Diamond Sports</a></strong></p>
<p><strong> </strong></p>
<p><strong><br />
</strong></p>
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		<title>CFB Week #1 Thursday Game Opinions</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/30/cfb-week-1-thursday-game-opinions/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/30/cfb-week-1-thursday-game-opinions/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Aug 2010 00:51:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=915</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[CFB: Week #1 / Thurs Sept 2 Game Opinions Southern Miss at South Carolina -14.0 (47.0) Southern Miss is 2-11 in road openers and have lost the last 5 by average of 15 ppg. They lose 8 starters on offense including 1000 yard rusher Damion Fletcher. Since Spurrier has taken over the helm at South Carolina, the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>CFB: Week #1 / Thurs Sept 2 Game Opinions</strong></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>Southern Miss at South Carolina -14.0 (47.0)</strong></span><br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Southern Miss</span> is 2-11 in road openers and have lost the last 5 by average of 15 ppg. They lose 8 starters on offense including 1000 yard rusher Damion Fletcher.<br />
Since Spurrier has taken over the helm at <span style="text-decoration: underline;">South Carolina</span>, the Gamecocks have not been known for explosive offense, they average slightly over 20.0 per game the past two seasons and 23.6 in his 5 years. This may change a little as they are returning 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball. They will be without standout TE Weslye Saunders who has been suspended and Spurrier has given no indication about his return date. Gamecocks have won 10 consecutive opening games and Steve Spurrier is 24-1 as a head coach in openers.<br />
<strong>Opinion: None</strong>&#8230;South Carolina will win but averaging only 20 pts per game makes it very iffy to cover a 14 point spread.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong><strong> </strong>South Carolina -14.16 <span id="more-915"></span></p>
<p><strong>Marshall at Ohio State -28.5 (47.5)</strong><br />
This is one of those opening day non-conference mismatches. <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Marshall</span> loses leading rusher Darius Marshall who had 1177 yards on the ground last year. They have lost 10 straight openers by an average of 23 ppg, they are 1-13 vs ranked FBS opponents.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Ohio State</span> has their sights set on a national championship this year. They return 9 starters on an offense that averaged nearly 30 ppg last year. They have won 31 consecutive home openers.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> …Would consider a small play on OSU if could get the line down to 27 or less..Easy win for the Buckeyes but tough to lay 4 TD’s+ in an opening game.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Ohio State -29.97</p>
<p><strong>Northern Illinois at Iowa State -3.5 (47.5)<br />
Northern Illinois</strong> is 5-0 ATS in their last five non-conference road games. Under HC Jerry Kill, they went from giving up 31 points per game in 2007 to just 18 in 2008 and 22 in 2009 and could improve on that as they return 9 starters on the defensive side of the ball.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Iowa State</span> is in somewhat of a look ahead situation as they face in-state rival Iowa next week where they will be seeking revenge following last years embarrassing 35-3 defeat. They are 10-1 in home openers the last 11 years. They were very respectable on defense also as they gave up only 21.8 average.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> I may be looking at an under play on the total in this game. Will have to do more research..No opinion on the side play<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line: Iowa State -4.10</strong></p>
<p><strong> Pittsburgh at Utah -2.5 (49.5)<br />
</strong><strong>** Diamond Club 2 Diamond Member Selection</strong></p>
<p><strong>USC -21.0 at Hawaii (53.0)<br />
</strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">USC</span> loses 6 starters on both sides of the ball including 1000 yard rusher Joe McKnight and their two leading receivers Damian Williams and Anthony McCoy. Starting QB Sophomore Matt Barkley was mediocre at best in his first season, with a 15 to 14 TD to Interception ratio and a 56.9% completion, with their lowest points for average in the past 10 years (26.5). They have won their last 12 season openers and hold 28-1 record against the WAC.  They were only 2-5 ATS last year as a road favorite.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Hawaii</span> 23 points per game last year was the lowest output in over a decade. The 30 allowed was the most since 2005. Hawaii is 0-6 versus USC with an average score of 19-62.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> These are two teams with a lot of questions to be answered. No way to figure this one out. Just stay away from it.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line: USC -21.03</strong></p>
<p><strong>Minnesota -3.0 at Mid Tennessee (48.5)<br />
</strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Minnesota</span> struggled on offense last year averaging 20.9 per game the lowest average in the last 7 years. It may improve however as they return 9 starters to the offense. The defense maybe the problem for them this year as they lose 9 starters on that side of the ball.  They are 8-2 as non-conf road favorite the last 10 situations.<br />
<strong>Middle Tennessee</strong> will be without starting QB Dwight Dasher, they will be starting a JC transfer sophomore QB. They are coming off a very good 10-3 season and have most of their key players returning. However, they are 1-5 in non-conference home openers the past 6 years.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> This was going to be a small play for me but the suspension of the starting QB has to keep me off the game.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line:</strong> Minnesota -1.25</p>
<p><strong>Friday August 3<br />
Arizona -14.5 at Toledo (60.0)<br />
</strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Arizona </span>doesn’t fare well as a big road favorite, they are 0-6 as a rd fav of 4 points or more in the last 6 situations. Arizona is 0-8 in road openers last 8 years, but 5-0 versus MAC opponents in the last 5 meetings. They return 10 starters to the offense but lose 7 on the defensive side. After a 10-3 season in 2008 Mike Stoops has been unable to get this team over .500 as they are 33-39 during his tenure going 7-7 last year, they are 35-31 ATS.<br />
<span style="text-decoration: underline;">Toledo</span> is 6-3 as a home dog the past 4 years going 2-0 last year. They couldn’t stop anyone last year giving up an average of 38.0 ppg. Toledo has been at home to 6 BCS teams since 2001 and has a SU record of 5-1. They are 14-4 in home openers last 18.<br />
<strong>Opinion:</strong> I have no idea by how much Arizona can with this game if at all with their terrible road opener record.<br />
<strong>T-Rating Line: Arizona -15.34</strong></p>
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		<title>Big Profits Betting NFL Preseason Football</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/27/big-profits-betting-nfl-preseason-football/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/27/big-profits-betting-nfl-preseason-football/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Aug 2010 17:30:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[handicapping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nfl preseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[pro football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sport betting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=854</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NFL preseason can be a great way to build your regular season betting bankroll. Statistical data, power rankings, offense and defensive rankings..etc. are all but useless in handicapping preseason games. Without statistical data to rely on, most bookmakers have the same problems as the handicapper when trying to set a favorable line on these games. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-856" style="margin: 0px 10px; float: left;" title="Pre-Season" src="http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/iStock_000011199130XSmall.jpg" alt="" width="298" height="197" /><strong>NFL</strong> <strong>preseason</strong> can be a great way to build your regular season betting bankroll. Statistical data, power rankings, offense and defensive rankings..etc. are all but useless in handicapping preseason games. Without statistical data to rely on, most bookmakers have the same problems as the handicapper when trying to set a favorable line on these games. This is why you will find most preseason spreads hovering around a field goal. We have consistently cashed very nicely for our members in preseason selections over the years and expect the same again this season. Following are a few things to watch for when <span id="more-854"></span>handicapping preseason.</p>
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<ul>
<li>Look to teams that had poor winning record last year going against the superbowl champs&#8230; This is an angle that has shown profit year after year. A team that had a dissapointing showing the year before, can gain a lot of respect in hurry by beating the reigning Super Bowl champs. Incentive is the key word here.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Analyze the coaching records in preseaon play&#8230;.Some coaches are notorious for not caring whether they win or lose a preseason football, while others put a lot of stock in getting their teams in a positive winning attitude by winning in preseason. This angle has become increasing less valuable, as so many coaching changes have occured over the past few year, but still valuable for those that do have a track record.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Look for teams in a &#8220;have to win&#8221; position&#8230;.Some owners who have had poor attendance records due to losing teams two or three years in row, will instruct the coaches to go all out to win preseason games to regain the confidence of the fans and sell season tickets. There are also some coaches whose jobs maybe on the line and need to show some wins in preseason to keep them. Constant reading of teams local papers and press releases will give you a tip on this angle.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Read all the coaches weekly press conference reports&#8230;Coaches will invariably tip off their game plan for an upcoming preseason game. Either they will be working on defense, or looking at rookies, or tuning up the offense. Read between the lines and you can get a good handle on how the game is going to be played. Two coaches stating they are working on their offense this week, could mean a high scoring game. A coach stating he has to make some cuts might be looking at a lot of rookies and the starters may see very little action. Many situations may come to light if you read, and can analyze what you are reading, in other words &#8220;read between the lines&#8221;.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> Watch the press releases for the QB rotations&#8230;.This is one of the most telling angles for handicapping a preseason game. A coach with 3 or 4 rookies or free agents vying for a QB position may pick one or two games to get an extensive look at these QB&#8217;s. Many times in these situations, a starter may only handle the ball for one series. Rookie QB&#8217;s are prone to make mistakes that could very well cost a ball game. Getting a situation like this going against a coach who has stated he will playing his #1 for an entire half and his #2 the second half is a huge edge for the handicapper. You also want to give a big edge to teams whose backup QB&#8217;s are all veterans or at least mostly veterans. Even though though the starter may play less than a quarter, following up with two veterans versus a team with two rookies is a huge advantage..Veterans will not normally make the mistakes a rookie might make that could cost the ball game.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li> My Favorite Angle&#8230;.There are many more angles that come into play when handicapping preseason almost all of which require extensive reading. One of my favorites is a team with an extensive amount of free agents joining the team. They are already seasoned veterans not likely to make rookie mistakes, but need to get extra playing time to get acclimated to the offensive and defensive schemes. Getting a veteran matched up against a rookie is an overwhelming handicapping edge.</li>
</ul>
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		<title>Sports Betting…..Reality Vs Expectation</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/26/sports-betting%e2%80%a6-reality-vs-expectation/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/26/sports-betting%e2%80%a6-reality-vs-expectation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 26 Aug 2010 15:17:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Basketball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[betting advisors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[handicapping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sport betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sports]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=848</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Despite the efforts of the US government to curtail gambling on the internet, millions of dollars are still being wagered each day on sporting events, poker and online casino’s. Estimates for the amount of money being wagered yearly on sporting events vary greatly but it is a common acceptance by all the estimators that it [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Despite the efforts of the US government to curtail gambling on the internet, millions of dollars are still being wagered each day on sporting events, poker and online casino’s. Estimates for the amount of money being<img class="alignright size-full wp-image-850" style="margin: 5px;" title="Sport Betting" src="http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/iStock_000005057671XSmall.jpg" alt="" width="198" height="297" /> wagered yearly on sporting events vary greatly but it is a common acceptance by all the estimators that it is in the Billions of dollars. Obviously the internet makes up a big part with its worldwide attraction and availability, but there are also the legal sports books in States like Nevada and some foreign countries that have legalized betting on sporting events.</p>
<p>What makes it difficult to get an accurate estimate is the number of “barber shop bookies” throughout the US and around the world. The illegal bookmakers it is estimated, makes up nearly 50% of all sport betting action annually. What draws the public to the “windows” to place wagers on sporting events….? Of course many are drawn by the thrill of having “something riding” on a game and almost always can watch the outcome on a TV broadcast.</p>
<p>Why do the Vegas Sports Books put a TV next to a game on their board? Because they know that more action will come in on a game that is being televised than ones that are not. This alone may answer the question of how many sport bettors actually end the season or the year with a profit? Playing games just because they are <span id="more-848"></span>on TV is certainly not going to put a sport bettor into profit.</p>
<p>General opinion by bookmakers estimate that less than 10% of all consistent sport bettors will end up with a profit at the end of the year. Most sport bettors do not have the expertise, the resources and the time to intelligently analyze a sporting event that will give them the edge against the bookmaker. Professional handicappers will spend many many hours each day analyzing statistics, reading press releases, studying injury reports, watching weather forecasts, tracking line movements, analyzing trends and comparing team and player matchups. Besides just the thrill having something riding on a sporting event, is the lure of those preying on the greedy. Many sport services (touts) advertise winning percentages that are nothing more than marketing ploys to reel in the sport bettor in search of making that “big hit”.</p>
<p>The reality is that anyone able to consistently predict the outcome of a game (against the spread) more than 60% of the time is in the top 10 to 15 percent of all handicappers. We are not referring to the hobbyist handicapper here, the one who places a wager once in awhile on they’re Alma mater or a once a year wager on the Super Bowl. We are talking about those that place 200 or 300 wagers per year. The serious sport bettor who is out to make a living or at least a decent profit off his efforts will wager on at least 5 to 10 games each week and higher when football season overlaps the basketball season. So, how much can a serious sport make betting sports throughout the year? Answer: how big is your available bankroll to get started? The expectation of the novice or unsuspecting sport bettor is invariably far above the realm of reality. This is in part, as mentioned above, is caused by the outlandish advertising claims of the some sport betting advisors and services. Claims of winning 70% or 80% of all their games, or that you can make 100 times your starting bankroll in one season….etc. Our example of a really good handicapper being able to win 60% of his wagers is very accurate, you can trust me on that one….</p>
<p>To prove this point, why is it that the biggest football handicapping contest in the world (The Super Contest), which is at the Las Vegas Hilton, and draws some of the best handicappers from throughout the world, offers a $10,000.00 bonus to anyone who correctly picks 63% or 66% (forgive me but the exact number escapes me at the moment) during the contest. The contest requires each entry to pick 5 NFL games per week for 17 weeks. That’s a total of 85 games, which means if someone could correctly pick 56 winners of those 85 games, they would collect the 10K bonus. So you can see that the average Joe hitting 60% is quite an extraordinary feat. Now here is the reality of making money by betting sports….Let’s assume you have a starting bankroll of say $1000.00 and you are going to wager on average 5 games per week. If you placed a $100.00 wager on each of your 5 games and you made a total of say 200 wagers over the year, you would have a total outlay of $22,000.00. This is including the 10% commission the books add to the wager. So if you make a $100.00 wager, you must put up $110.00 to win $100.00. This is sometimes called the “juice” or the “vig”. This is how the bookmakers stay in business. They make 10% off the bet off all the losers, which is one reason it is difficult to beat the books. They adjust betting lines so they can keep the action on a game as close to 50-50 as possible….They keep the $10.00 of the losing bets while the winner gets his initial $110.00 wager plus the $100.00 win. So if a book had say 100 wagers at 100 each which would be 10,000 wagered on one game and 50 of the bettors had side A and the other side B, this is the perfect scenario for the book, because they profit no matter who wins the game. Let’s use our example of your $100.00 wager on 200 games over the course of a season, and let’s say you are a good handicapper and are able win 60% of those games….I must point out here, they you need to win at least 53% of those games to break even, just because of the Vig as mentioned above. Ok, so you wagered a total of $22,000.00 over the season, at 60% you won 120 of those 200 games. You will get back $210.00 for each of the games you won (the $110.00 you put up plus the $100.00 you won) which gives you a total return of $25,200.00 return, or a $3,200.00 profit for the year….That is the reality. Now look at someone who is wagering only $10.00 or $20.00 per game and you see that the reality is, you need a big starting bankroll to make a living at betting sports. Even at the $3200.00 profit, you certainly cannot consider that as making a living….And again we are assuming you are a “good” handicapper picking winners at 60%.</p>
<p>Fortunately, most sport bettors are recreational or hobbyist players and not out to make a living. Just seeing even a small profit at the end of the year can be very gratifying for them and fulfills their desire to add to the excitement of the game. Over the past 16 years of providing sport betting advice to my clients, it is gratifying to me when even a small player is making even a small profit off my service…I have never failed to make a profit for my clients in the 18 years I have been in business….However, the reality is: you may not get rich.</p>
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		<title>Getting The Edge…. With The “Real” Home Field Advantage</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/25/839/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/25/839/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Aug 2010 15:02:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[College football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[handicapping]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NFL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sport betting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=839</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-841" style="margin: 5px 10px;" title="Home Field" src="http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/iStock_000002043537XSmall.jpg" alt="" width="378" height="203" /></p>
<p>If you’re a regular football bettor, I am sure you have experienced the frustration of watching what you thought to be a winning ticket go into the trash because of a one or two point loss to the spread. Getting the edge on the bookmaker and racking up the win many times can mean finding that 1 or 2 point advantage. Astute handicappers and sport bettors are constantly “shopping the line” on a game they have an interest in betting, looking for that ½ point that could swing a loser into a winner. One way to find that “edge” is knowing what the “real” home field advantage is for a given game matchup. Bookmakers will arbitrarily assign a 3 point line advantage to the home team in the NFL and 4 points to the home team in<span id="more-839"></span> college matchups.</p>
<p>Taking the time to track the home and away point differential can mean the difference between a winning and a losing season. The 3 and 4 points the books assign to the home teams in football, will usually average out to be fairly close at the end of a season, but these averages are made up of teams that have much less or much higher “real” home advantage. A few years ago a college team actually had a 8.0 point real home advantage and we ended up cashing at least 3 tickets on that team during the season that we would most likely have not even have had considered a play.</p>
<p>Figuring the “real” home field advantage may take a little extra time in your handicapping process, but is not that difficult. Using the linesmakers opening line on a game as our common denominator, we want to determine by the results of the game, how much better against the point differential the bookmakers feel they should win or lose. We track this separately for home and away games.</p>
<div><a href="http://www.beted.com/5cf15955-47c7/promland/0509/0509GEN.aspx"><img src="http://banners.beted.com/images/banners/NFL/NFLGEN1M508x60.gif" border="0" alt="" /></a></div>
<p>Example: If the linesmaker determines the home team should win by say 10 points by posting a 10 point spread and that team actually wins the game say by 17 points, then that team played 7 points better in their home game than what was expected. By dividing the difference (7 points) by 10, we have an adjustment to the home field advantage of 0.07 points. If this team had a 4.0 home advantage going into the game, their adjusted real home field advantage would now be 4.07 points per game. Taking the road teams performance, they played 7 points below expectation and therefore we assume they would have played better at home so they also would get the .07 added to their home field advantage, so if their home field advantage going into the game was 4.0, they would now have a 4.07 advantage when playing at home.</p>
<p>The opposite of course holds true when a team plays below expectations. Let’s say the team mentioned above only won the game by 3 points. They played 7 points below expectation and therefore the .07 must be deducted from their home advantage. So their home advantage would now be 3.93. The road team actually played better on the road than anticipated which would diminish their home field advantage number and they would be deducted the .07 from their existing home field advantage.</p>
<p>Anytime a home team plays better than expected (against the spread) they gain points, when the result is less than expected they are deducted points. When the road teams plays better than expected, they are deducted points from their home field advantage when they play below expectations, points are added to their home field advantage.</p>
<p>By the middle of the season you could find a matchup that would give you a 3 or 4 point advantage over the bookmaker. Some teams consistently play as good on the road as they do at home and therefore have very little home field advantage. On the other hand, some teams perform week after week better at home than on the road and have a much better home field advantage…Getting a matchup with a road team that plays as good on the road as they do at home, versus a team with a poor home field advantage, takes away the 4 points home advantage the books add to the spread. This is a huge advantage when handicapping this game.</p>
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		<title>Handicapping The Offense In Baseball</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/22/handicapping-the-offense-in-baseball/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/22/handicapping-the-offense-in-baseball/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Aug 2010 04:52:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tony Diamond</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sport betting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=828</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Baseball is not generally thought of as an offensive or defensive game, at least the terms are not commonly used. Pitching and hitting are the more common terms when relating to offense or defense in baseball. The defense in baseball is made up of the starting pitching, the bullpen, the unearned runs allowed and the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>B</strong>aseball is not generally thought of as an offensive or defensive  game, at least the terms are not commonly used. Pitching and hitting are  the more common terms when relating to offense or defense in baseball.  The defense in baseball is made up of the starting pitching, the  bullpen, the unearned runs allowed and the overall fielding prowess of  the nine men on the field. There are dozens of stats that are present in  handicapping baseball, but the bottom line is that only one stat is the  determining factor which decides whether you cash your ticket or  deposit it in a trash can…That is “runs scored”..! Batting Avg, on base  percentage, steals, etc all add up to the final stat which is scoring  runs..However, the team with the highest batting avg or men on base  percentage is not going to cash your ticket unless they put runs on the  board. There is little doubt that<span id="more-828"></span> handicapping baseball properly is the  must tedious and time consuming of all betting sports, however, it is  the most profitable for me. I spend on average anywhere from 9 to 10  hours daily depending on the number of games on the schedule.</p>
<p>For this article we will focus on the various offensive  statistical categories that teams are faced in each match up. I use the  following stats for determining how many runs a particular team is  “expected” to score in a particular game based on past history.</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Average runs per game at home or away…</strong>There are a few factors  that contribute to why there is normally a difference in runs scored on  a home field than on the road. Familiarity with the playing surface,  comforts of home with no trips back and forth to the hotel and the  characteristics of the ballpark itself are just a few.</li>
<li><strong>Average runs per game versus lefty or righty…</strong>Some teams  lineups are configured better toward a lefty or righty pitcher. They may  have more power hitters who are right handed batters and will  definitely have an edge when facing a left handed batter and vice versa.</li>
<li><strong>Average runs per game home and away vs lefty or righty…</strong> The  home park might be more advantageous to a right handed or left handed  batter with shorter fences to left or right field, which will indicate a  difference in most cases as to the number of average runs versus left  or righty at home than on the road. You must pay attention however to  road ball parks that have the same or near the same configuration as a  home teams park.</li>
<li><strong>Average runs per game vs “A”, “B”, “C” or “D” pitchers….</strong>A big  mistake many handicappers make when figuring a teams offensive run  output, is using the “overall” average runs in each various situation  mentioned in this article, or just the overall runs scored period…This  is very misleading. A team maybe averaging say 5.0 runs per game  overall, but when facing an “A” pitcher (one with an ERA of under 3.25)  they may be only averaging 2.5 or 3.0 runs per game…Big difference. Some  teams can beat up on the “C” or “D” pitchers, but have terrible records  against good pitching. So it is imperative to track the average runs  against each of the 4 classes of pitchers and make the necessary  adjustments.</li>
<li><strong>Average runs per game on grass or turf….</strong>I do keep this stat  daily, however, I am finding this category becoming more and more  insignificant with more parks going to artificial turf. Teams with speed  and have a lot of hitters who “keep the ball in play” will get more  singles and doubles on a turf surface than on natural grass.</li>
<li><strong>Average runs per game night or day….</strong>For some unknown reason,  there are definitely some teams who consistently score higher or lower  on average in day or night games….</li>
<li><strong>The opposing teams average unearned runs per game…</strong>MLB teams  on average overall, give up around 0.40 unearned runs per game. However,  there are currently some teams that are giving up 0.60 or 0.70 unearned  runs per game. This is very significant seeing as so many games are  determined by one run…After getting the average runs based on the above  categories, adding the unearned runs could turn a play into a no play or  vice versa.</li>
<li><strong>Adjusting to the average runs per game in the specific ball park they are playing….</strong>Not  all ballparks are the same…Keeping track of the average runs scored in  each individual ballpark is imperative. The average overall for major  league parks may be in the vicinity of 8.0 runs per game, but some have  averages as high as 10.0 and some as low as 6.0. I adjust my average  runs for visiting teams to reflect the difference in overall runs for  that particular ballpark.</li>
<li><strong>Adjustment of the average runs based on regular starters who are out of the lineup….</strong>This  may be the one single most important stat of all when figuring how many  runs a particular team will score on a given day. Taking a Barry Bond  or Albert Pujols out of a lineup could very well mean as much as 1.5 or  2.0 runs difference on average in each game. I use the runs scored,  RBI’s and homeruns to figure just how much the missing player will  effect the run output of the game.</li>
<li><strong>Adjusting to the weather and wind conditions…</strong>..Teams  overloaded with power hitters or homerun hitters, will be at a much more  of a disandvantage when playing in a condition where the wind is  blowing in from the outfield. Of course the opposite holds true when the  wind is blowing out. Wind conditions have little effect on the teams  that have a lineup of hitters that just keep the ball in play, pounding  out singles and doubles.</li>
<li><strong>Evaluating the Umpire </strong>……Umpires have certain trends that  appear to be consistent year after year. Some umpires are consistently  showing a edge to the overs in his games and others a definite trend to  the unders. The ball and strike zone of each umpire differs. A ump with a  small strike zone will have a tendency to average one or more runs per  game than some others, thus creating an edge to the over in his games.  Handicapping the umps may be a very small part of handicapping the  offense, but you must remember that fractions of runs will eventually  add up to one run which my make the difference in a loss or a win.</li>
</ol>
<p>After getting all the average runs scored in each of the  first 6 categories mentioned above, you will then add the average runs  difference in each of the remaining categories that pertains to the  particular game, you can then add them all up and divide by the number  of categories you used and get the actual average runs this team is  “expected” to score in this particular game.</p>
<p>Example: Let’s say a team playing at home against a left  handed “B” pitcher at night on grass. They average 4.4 runs at home  overall, 5.2 runs against lefties overall and have averaged 4.7 runs  against lefties when playing at home and 3.2 runs against “B” pitchers.  On grass they average 4.6 runs and at night 3.8 runs. Their average runs  in this category would be 4.31 runs expected to score. Let’s now say  that the opposing team is averaging 0.20 unearned runs per game and no  regular starters are out of the lineup. You now add the 0.20 runs to  their total to get an overall average of 4.51 expected runs for this  game. Do the same with the opposing team and you get the difference  which will show who is expected to outscore their opponent, (based on  the offense only, you would still need to figure the defense to get the  final ouput of runs, see our article handicapping baseball on the  website.)</p>
<p>This may seem like a awful lot of time and work….well it  is! But it is the most accurate method of handicapping baseball  offense…</p>
<p>Good Luck</p>
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		<title>Sports Betting Odds Vikings vs. 49ers Brett Favre Lines</title>
		<link>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/22/822/</link>
		<comments>http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/2010/08/22/822/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Aug 2010 18:30:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>paul</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Football]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[General Gambling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sports Betting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://tonydiamondsports.com/blog/?p=822</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Mike On 22 Aug 2010 NFL betting lines handicappers will get a good look at what is being touted as a much improved passing attack for the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night. The 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings in a preseason matchup that could very well be a playoff preview. The game [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By Mike<br />
On 22 Aug 2010</p>
<p>NFL betting lines  handicappers will get a good look at what is being touted as a much improved passing attack for the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night.</p>
<p>The 49ers will host the Minnesota Vikings in a preseason matchup that could very well be a playoff preview. The game can be (<a href="http://www.sportsmedianetwork.com/nfl-football/sportsbettingodds-vikings-49ers-brettfavre-lines/">read the rest of this article</a>)</p>
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