Heat -5 hosting Bulls

Analysis: Forget any zig-zag theories or faith in Derrick Rose. It’s not going to happen in Game 4 for Chicago. Not in Miami, not against a Heat team that not only has their confidence and swagger, but has at last found its identity.

The Heat are the only unbeaten home team in the playoffs. Their 7-0 post-season record includes a 4-0 ATS mark against Boston and Chicago. Miami won each of those games against the Celtics and Bulls by nine points or more.

It’s easy to point to LeBron James and Chris Bosh for much of the success against the Bulls. James had 10 assists and no turnovers in Game 3. He’s doing a great job of finding Bosh’s right spots. Bosh is averaging 24.6 points in the series on 66 percent shooting from the floor.

The Heat whipped the Bulls by 11 this past Sunday in Game 3 despite Dwayne Wade missing 11 of 17 shots from the floor, committing more turnovers than assists and failing to block a shot or getting a steal. It’s not difficult envisioning Wade to have a much better performance today.

But what has suddenly made this a lopsided series in favor of Miami hasn’t been just James, Bosh or Wade. Credit goes, too, to unsung Udonis Haslem.

Haslem missed nearly the entire season with a foot injury. But he returned in Game 2 to score 13 points, grab five rebounds, pick up a steal and block a shot in a little more than 23 minutes. These aren’t LeBron numbers, but they were well-timed and sparked the Heat giving them an inside toughness they lacked all season.

In the last six quarters – or since Haslem came on the scene – the Bulls have been held to an average of 19 points per quarter. That comes out to 76 points for the game. The Bulls scored their lowest two-game total of the season in Games 2 and 3.

Rose has been particularly bottled up by Miami’s switching, quick defenders. Haslem and Joel Anthony have helped close the inside on Rose keeping him from the basket while Miami’s double-teams have also been highly effective on the league MVP.

Rose had only five assists in Game 3. He hasn’t been able to step up against the Heat after taking advantage of inferior playoff opponents Indiana and Atlanta. Rose needs to draw fouls, but that hasn’t happened in this series as he’s averaging barely more than six free throw attempts per game.

The Bulls have been outscored by 25 points when Rose has been on the court during the series. The Bulls don’t have enough good shooters to make up for Rose being keyed on.

Rarely can a team win an NBA championship without paying dues, which often means deep playoff experience. Chicago doesn’t have that.

It’s becoming obvious that the Bulls can’t handle the limelight. Rose spent some of his Sunday denying he said NBA players use performance-enhancing drugs and Joakim Noah drew a fine for using an anti-gay slur in Game 3. After that exchange with the fan, Noah failed to score.

Maybe the Bulls can get right when they return to Chicago. But there’s not enough turnaround time for them to keep this Game 4 close.

Of all the betting sports, Baseball has got to be by far the most profitable of all. The number of games, the flexible money line and runline pricing all add to the additional profitability possibilities in baseball betting. The 3 way round robin parlay with 2 dogs and 3 favorites is one of my favorite bets in baseball. Runline parlays’, totals and moneyline parlay’s off the bettor many opportunities is used intelligently.

Unfortunately for most sport bettors..they don’t have enough hours in a day to be able to handicap a complete schedule of baseball games properly. With the exception of the rare few who handicap for a living, most sport bettors have other responsibilities such as a full time job that takes up many precious hours that would be needed for handicapping baseball.

Baseball players, although they are still considered part of a “team”, it is primarily an individual sport for statistical handicapping purposes. Unlike football where a passer has to rely on his lineman teammates to give him protection and his receivers ability to catch the ball, or running backs that need to have lineman open holes for them. Without team play, a quarterback would rarely complete a pass and a running back would never gain a yard rushing.

Baseball players have no-one helping them scoop up a ground ball, catch a fly ball or help them swing the bat. They stand alone on their own merits with the exception of double plays or relays they control their own statistical destiny. For this reason, handicapping baseball becomes a time consuming nightmare compared to handicapping “team sports”. If the same starting pitcher started every game with the same bullpen pitchers available every game and the same batting lineup played every single game, you could then handicap baseball based solely on overall “team statistics”.

Obviously this is not the case and statistically you must handicap each and every individual player on a day to day basis. The power rating of each player will make up the teams offensive and defensive probably for each game each day. We have at Tonydiamondsports.com had tremendous success for our clients and members showing big profits in baseball year after year. (we strive for 100+ units per year) Last year our clients earned 91.3 units or $9,130.00 profit for a $100.00 bettor. Our Vip members who use our Money management method did much much better than that.

Our success is attributed to having the knowledge, experience and the time to log every single players statistics every day and get a new power rating each day…We break down the offensive expectancy based on whether a team is at home, on the road, vs Lefty, vs righty, whether the pitcher is an A, B, C or D pitcher, whether the ballpark favors pitching or hitting, what opposing bullpen pitchers are available and then of course the subliminals such as hot streaks cold streaks, weather, injuries etc….

We formulate 17 different statistics daily which gives us a projected “final score” of the game showing us the potential winner, by how many runs and what the total will be. We do not make our decision on the “value” to the moneyline…we have a set of betting rules and we make our decision based soley on the projected final score of the game, not the posted money line. There will be a in depth explanation of our betting rules in our next article.

There are “Big Bucks Betting Baseball” but you had better have the time, the patience and the discipline to reap the rewards… Join us for our quest to 100+ units, watch for our Early Bird Baseball Season Special…. For VIP member info…email me at tony@tonydiamondsports.com

Next chapter: Rules for profitable baseball betting

Yunz is from the Picksburgh area or maybe you grew up 
there if:

1. You didn’t have a spring break in high school.

2. You walk carefully when it is “slippy” outside.

3. You often go down to the “crick.”

4. You’ve told your children to “red up” their rooms.

5. You can remember telling your little brother/sister to stop being so ” nebby.”

6. You’ve gotten hurt by falling into a ”jaggerbush”.

7. Your mother or grandmother has been seen wearing a ”babushka” on her head.

8. You’ve “worshed” the clothes.

9. I ask you to hand me one of those “Gum-Bands” an’ you actually know what I’m talking about.

10. You know you can’t drive too fast on the back roads, because of the deer.

11. You know Beaver Valley , Turtle Crick, Mars, Slippery Rock, Greentree and New Castle are 
names of towns. And you’ve been to most, if not all, of them.

12. A girl walks up to three of her girl friends and says, “HEY,YENZ GUYS!”

13. You hear “you guyses” and don’t think twice. Example: “you guyses hause is nice.”

14. You know the three rivers by name and under stand that “The Point” isn’t just on a writing instrument.

15. Someone refers to “The Mon” or “The Yough” and you know exactly what they’re talking about.

16. You remember the blizzard o f 1993 (or 1976, or 1950, or 1939, or…) and remember not being able to go outside because the snow was over your head and you would have suffocated.

17. Someone starts the chant, “Here we go Still-ers!” and you join in. In the proper cadence, waving the 
appropriately colored towel.

18. Bob Prince and “There’s a bug loose on the rug.” hold special meaning for you.

19. You’ve either eaten a Farkleberry Tart or know someone who has.

20. You drink pop, eat hoagies, love perogies and one of your favorite sandwiches actually has coleslaw and French fries ON it.

21. You know what a “still mill” is.

22. You expect temps in the winter to be record-breaking cold and temps in the summer to be record-breaking hot.

23. You know what Eat ’N Park is and frequently ate breakfast there at 2:00 AM after the bar closed and made fun of people.

24. You order “dippy eggs” in a restaurant and get exactly what you wanted.

25. You spent your summers, or a school picnic at Luna Park , Kennywood, Westview, Sand Castle, or Idlewild.

26. You’ve been to the Braun’s Bread Plant or Story Book Forest for a school field trip. We went to the Heinz plant and the Isaly’s plant for Cub Scouts.

27. “Chipped ham” was always in your refrigerator when you was growin’up.

28. You refuse to buy any condiments besides Heinz unless a Pittsburgh athlete’s picture is on the 
side of the container.

29. When you call the dog or the kids you shout, “Kum-mere” and they come.

30. Franco, Roberto, and Mario don’t need last names and you can recite their exploits by heart.

31. Food at a wedding reception consists of rigatoni, stuffed cabbage, sauerkraut and polska kielbasa.

Arizona is allowing the most points in the NFL this season, giving up an average of 29 per game and 398 total yards…their offense isn’t scoring much, but they do have 8 non-offense TD’s this year including two kickoff returns. 5 off the Card’s 10 opponents have scored 31 or more points and 2 have gone over 40. One might think that the 49er’s should come out and run the ball right down the Card’s throats with Frank Gore against the 28th ranked run defense, however Gore only managed 23 yards last week against the 31st ranked run defense.

I am sure that the Monday Night Football producers when they scheduled this game, expected these two teams to be at the top of their divisions and that this would be a very entertaining and meaningful game….Wrong! From a handicapping standpoint, there isn’t much you can find in the way of stats and trends to lean either way, what little edge there is has to go the way of San Francisco…Let’s say hmmmm…. 21-17

Years ago after discharge from the Navy, I had no idea what I wanted to do for my life’s career. I wanted to play major league baseball and was actually signed by a major league team before I went into the service, but having spent 7 years in the military, that was no longer an option. I was very entrepreneurial and ambitious so I decided I would start my own business, but what kind of business, I had no idea. Being a risk taker, very promotion minded and very creative, I jumped around trying various little low cost startup businesses. One became very successful; at least that’s what I thought. After 11 years I had started several businesses, all of which appeared outwardly to be thriving. The bottom line was that I didn’t have any money in the bank. I went from business to business yet no money to show for it, yet all were created from scratch and were actual working businesses.

At a “chance” meeting one day I discovered something that would turn my business life around drastically. While having an after office cocktail at the Hilton Inn in Akron Ohio, I was seated next to a gentleman at the bar and we entered into some friendly conversation exchanging our business experiences. It turns out that he was a psychotherapist teaching at a local college. He made one comment about my business situation that stuck with me until this day…He said “it appears that your real goal is not making money, but the sensation of accomplishment”. In other words he explained that I might have thought my goal was making money when in fact it was really just starting a business and making it work regardless of how much money it made. It was the “feeling of accomplishment” that was subconsciously driving me. This explained why after a business I started was up and running I would lose interest and jump to another business. Had my goals been identified clearly that I wanted to become “financially independent”; I would have most likely put my efforts into working the business to make money.

Comparing my experience to sport betting I have recognized in more instances than I would like to think, that many, maybe even most sport bettors have achieved their goal by having a winning percentage regardless whether it made them any money. They brag about their winning percentage but neglect to tell you that they need to borrow taxi fare to get home. When you start to program your efforts to nothing but the bottom line of making money, you start to make smarter decisions, exercise good discipline, money management, bankroll management and of course the type of selections you’re looking to wager.

If your focus is soley on how many games you win or lose, or what your winning percentage is, just bear in mind that the bank will not accept a percentage as a deposit…cash is acceptable however…!!

The LSU Tigers won’t have many problems beating UL-Monroe when they meet at Tiger Stadium on Saturday at 7:00 PM ET, but cashing in against the college football betting odds could be another (Read full Article Here)

Just because there is bad weather predicted does not always mean that it will effect the outcome or the scoring of a game, or more importantly effect it to the extent of what the line movement is indicating. A wet, snowy or windy condition will not always effect the scoring of a game where the teams are primarily running teams. Wind and a wet ball may effect the passing game to some extent but you must bear in mind that the receiver and ball carriers know in advance where they are going and can plan his move or when to make his cut, while the defender has to act much more quickly and is more prone to slipping on wet or snowy surface. Wind will definetely be the biggest factor for passing teams, especially those that rely on the big plays down field. However, going to the short passing game can be a huge advantage for receivers gaining yards after catch for the above mentioned reasons.

When there is a snow condition, the general public will invariably drive the total and the side lines down. A 45 total could go to 42 or ever 40 when in fact the condition may have little or no effect on the outcome based on the teams that are playing. I once saw O.J. rush for nearly 200 yards in a game that they had to remove 12 inches of snow from the field at game time and use heaters to melt the ice.

So before you jump on a line movement because of a weather condition, take some time to analyze the style and strengths of the teams in question and ask whether the conditions should be considered. Taking a moment to look closely can put some extra units in your bankroll.

Were Going For Our 19th Consecutive Winning Basketball Season…Two Time NBA Handicapping Champions…Check Out Our Basketball Season Special… Tonydiamondsports