Heat -5 hosting Bulls

Analysis: Forget any zig-zag theories or faith in Derrick Rose. It’s not going to happen in Game 4 for Chicago. Not in Miami, not against a Heat team that not only has their confidence and swagger, but has at last found its identity.

The Heat are the only unbeaten home team in the playoffs. Their 7-0 post-season record includes a 4-0 ATS mark against Boston and Chicago. Miami won each of those games against the Celtics and Bulls by nine points or more.

It’s easy to point to LeBron James and Chris Bosh for much of the success against the Bulls. James had 10 assists and no turnovers in Game 3. He’s doing a great job of finding Bosh’s right spots. Bosh is averaging 24.6 points in the series on 66 percent shooting from the floor.

The Heat whipped the Bulls by 11 this past Sunday in Game 3 despite Dwayne Wade missing 11 of 17 shots from the floor, committing more turnovers than assists and failing to block a shot or getting a steal. It’s not difficult envisioning Wade to have a much better performance today.

But what has suddenly made this a lopsided series in favor of Miami hasn’t been just James, Bosh or Wade. Credit goes, too, to unsung Udonis Haslem.

Haslem missed nearly the entire season with a foot injury. But he returned in Game 2 to score 13 points, grab five rebounds, pick up a steal and block a shot in a little more than 23 minutes. These aren’t LeBron numbers, but they were well-timed and sparked the Heat giving them an inside toughness they lacked all season.

In the last six quarters – or since Haslem came on the scene – the Bulls have been held to an average of 19 points per quarter. That comes out to 76 points for the game. The Bulls scored their lowest two-game total of the season in Games 2 and 3.

Rose has been particularly bottled up by Miami’s switching, quick defenders. Haslem and Joel Anthony have helped close the inside on Rose keeping him from the basket while Miami’s double-teams have also been highly effective on the league MVP.

Rose had only five assists in Game 3. He hasn’t been able to step up against the Heat after taking advantage of inferior playoff opponents Indiana and Atlanta. Rose needs to draw fouls, but that hasn’t happened in this series as he’s averaging barely more than six free throw attempts per game.

The Bulls have been outscored by 25 points when Rose has been on the court during the series. The Bulls don’t have enough good shooters to make up for Rose being keyed on.

Rarely can a team win an NBA championship without paying dues, which often means deep playoff experience. Chicago doesn’t have that.

It’s becoming obvious that the Bulls can’t handle the limelight. Rose spent some of his Sunday denying he said NBA players use performance-enhancing drugs and Joakim Noah drew a fine for using an anti-gay slur in Game 3. After that exchange with the fan, Noah failed to score.

Maybe the Bulls can get right when they return to Chicago. But there’s not enough turnaround time for them to keep this Game 4 close.

Mistakes Sport Bettors Make…#1 of 5

One of the book maker’s favorite clients is the “action player”, the one who has to make a play on every game that is televised. If you have ever visited a Las Vegas sport book, you will see a big “TV” symbol on the betting board next to the games that are being televised. Why? Because they know that action players will make bets on those games even without a justifiable reason for making the bet. Thus turns out to be at best a 50/50 proposition for the bettor and the book and in that scenario the book wins the bettor loses because of the vig or commission. Laying 1.10 to win 1.00 means you need to win 52% (in round figures) to even break even.

Playing on your favorite team or your alma mater, a college team because your neighbor’s first cousin’s best friend’s sister has a nephew that is the water boy. You llaugh, well maybe that is an exaggeration, but don’t laugh, because subconsciously action players will devise a reasoning in their minds to make the bet an acceptable or reasonable play. Evidence of playing home town or favorite teams comes from the fact that the lines makers in Las Vegas will adjust the opening lines on games when any California or Arizona football team is playing on the weekend. They inflate the line knowing that on the weekend the tourists that flock into Vegas will be hitting the books with heavy betting on the local team, thus driving the line to the opponents favor.

This mistake made by sport bettors has no formula for correcting the problem. The serious sport bettor, who really has a bottom line of making money, just has to wake up and become aware of his mistake, see how much money is being lost because of his “action” bets, and then discipline his or herself to stay away from these plays. Unlike the junkie who is hooked drugs, there is no medication or rehabilitation treatment for the sport bettor betting games just for “action”. They are in fact an “action junkie” and I have personally known some who have lost literally millions making bets that they have no reason to bet., the truth is, and the only way to break the habit is through self-discipline. Just tell yourself, there are thousands of betting opportunities throughout the year and you have the luxury of being patient and picking the right spots to risk your hard earned bankroll. Set you mind to “making money” not betting sports.

Track the Bet is a sports betting analytics software which helps users manage their sports picks with multiple reports and graphs. Users can view their Overall Records, Total Profit & ROI by sport for the following bet types:

• Straight, Parlay & Teasers
• Money line, Spread & Total
• Home/Road Underdogs & Home/Road Favorites
• Conference & Team

Users can also create customized, daily e-mail Alerts and Saved Reports to help stay on top of their plays and monitor their money management habits, which is crucial for long term success against the sportsbooks.

Currently Supported Sports
NFL
College Football
NBA
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MLB
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How It Works

Tracking your sports bets is easy. Simply:

1. Select Bet Type & Team
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4. Enjoy the game!

Each bet is auto-graded and upon completion of the game, the wager is available for instant analysis.

By subscribing to TracktheBet, users can:

• Spend less time updating & verifying records
• Pinpoint misconceptions in gaming arsenal
• Document money management habits
• Detail bankroll and account balances
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What makes it difficult to get an accurate estimate is the number of “barber shop bookies” throughout the US and around the world. The illegal bookmakers it is estimated, makes up nearly 50% of all sport betting action annually. What draws the public to the “windows” to place wagers on sporting events….? Of course many are drawn by the thrill of having “something riding” on a game and almost always can watch the outcome on a TV broadcast.

Why do the Vegas Sports Books put a TV next to a game on their board? Because they know that more action will come in on a game that is being televised than ones that are not. This alone may answer the question of how many sport bettors actually end the season or the year with a profit? Playing games just because they are on TV is certainly not going to put a sport bettor into profit.

General opinion by bookmakers estimate that less than 10% of all consistent sport bettors will end up with a profit at the end of the year. Most sport bettors do not have the expertise, the resources and the time to intelligently analyze a sporting event that will give them the edge against the bookmaker. Professional handicappers will spend many many hours each day analyzing statistics, reading press releases, studying injury reports, watching weather forecasts, tracking line movements, analyzing trends and comparing team and player matchups. Besides just the thrill having something riding on a sporting event, is the lure of those preying on the greedy. Many sport services (touts) advertise winning percentages that are nothing more than marketing ploys to reel in the sport bettor in search of making that “big hit”.

The reality is that anyone able to consistently predict the outcome of a game (against the spread) more than 60% of the time is in the top 10 to 15 percent of all handicappers. We are not referring to the hobbyist handicapper here, the one who places a wager once in awhile on they’re Alma mater or a once a year wager on the Super Bowl. We are talking about those that place 200 or 300 wagers per year. The serious sport bettor who is out to make a living or at least a decent profit off his efforts will wager on at least 5 to 10 games each week and higher when football season overlaps the basketball season. So, how much can a serious sport make betting sports throughout the year? Answer: how big is your available bankroll to get started? The expectation of the novice or unsuspecting sport bettor is invariably far above the realm of reality. This is in part, as mentioned above, is caused by the outlandish advertising claims of the some sport betting advisors and services. Claims of winning 70% or 80% of all their games, or that you can make 100 times your starting bankroll in one season….etc. Our example of a really good handicapper being able to win 60% of his wagers is very accurate, you can trust me on that one….

To prove this point, why is it that the biggest football handicapping contest in the world (The Super Contest), which is at the Las Vegas Hilton, and draws some of the best handicappers from throughout the world, offers a $10,000.00 bonus to anyone who correctly picks 63% or 66% (forgive me but the exact number escapes me at the moment) during the contest. The contest requires each entry to pick 5 NFL games per week for 17 weeks. That’s a total of 85 games, which means if someone could correctly pick 56 winners of those 85 games, they would collect the 10K bonus. So you can see that the average Joe hitting 60% is quite an extraordinary feat. Now here is the reality of making money by betting sports….Let’s assume you have a starting bankroll of say $1000.00 and you are going to wager on average 5 games per week. If you placed a $100.00 wager on each of your 5 games and you made a total of say 200 wagers over the year, you would have a total outlay of $22,000.00. This is including the 10% commission the books add to the wager. So if you make a $100.00 wager, you must put up $110.00 to win $100.00. This is sometimes called the “juice” or the “vig”. This is how the bookmakers stay in business. They make 10% off the bet off all the losers, which is one reason it is difficult to beat the books. They adjust betting lines so they can keep the action on a game as close to 50-50 as possible….They keep the $10.00 of the losing bets while the winner gets his initial $110.00 wager plus the $100.00 win. So if a book had say 100 wagers at 100 each which would be 10,000 wagered on one game and 50 of the bettors had side A and the other side B, this is the perfect scenario for the book, because they profit no matter who wins the game. Let’s use our example of your $100.00 wager on 200 games over the course of a season, and let’s say you are a good handicapper and are able win 60% of those games….I must point out here, they you need to win at least 53% of those games to break even, just because of the Vig as mentioned above. Ok, so you wagered a total of $22,000.00 over the season, at 60% you won 120 of those 200 games. You will get back $210.00 for each of the games you won (the $110.00 you put up plus the $100.00 you won) which gives you a total return of $25,200.00 return, or a $3,200.00 profit for the year….That is the reality. Now look at someone who is wagering only $10.00 or $20.00 per game and you see that the reality is, you need a big starting bankroll to make a living at betting sports. Even at the $3200.00 profit, you certainly cannot consider that as making a living….And again we are assuming you are a “good” handicapper picking winners at 60%.

Fortunately, most sport bettors are recreational or hobbyist players and not out to make a living. Just seeing even a small profit at the end of the year can be very gratifying for them and fulfills their desire to add to the excitement of the game. Over the past 16 years of providing sport betting advice to my clients, it is gratifying to me when even a small player is making even a small profit off my service…I have never failed to make a profit for my clients in the 18 years I have been in business….However, the reality is: you may not get rich.

June was a very good month for our members as they racked up 20.83 units of profit. We strive for 17.5 units each month so we exceeded our goal this month by 3.33 units.

• NBA was 3-1 for +1.90 Units….
• NHL was 1-0 for +1.00 units….
• Baseball was 71-54 for +17.93 units.

This gives us5 winning months in 2010 and brings us to within 8.8 units of our pace to our "210 in 2010" new years resolution. We had one bad month that would have brought us up to pace for our 210 units. In February we dropped -13.35 units. Our quest for 210 in 2010 is currently at +96.20 units.

Our Complimentary Newsletter Best Bets were 20-10 for the month..and our Play of the Day was 14-8.

Get Our Complimentary Best Bet Daily In Our Free Newsletter  TonyDiamondSports

Because we have many readers, subscribers and members that are located in many countries outside the U.S., I like to keep up with the happenings in the industry from around the world.

Online sports betting bust…….Israeli police launched a successful drive against an online gambling ring this week, reports the newspaper Haaretz, arresting 28 individuals following visits to 40 premises across the country. Full Story

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1400 Online Gambling sites blocked……..The Chinese government has continued its heightened assault on internet gambling (see previous InfoPowa reports) with the announcement that more websites have been blocked on government orders. Full Story

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Banks And Credit Card Companies Balk At Ban On Gaming Fund Transfers

Depository institutions around the country are expressing deep concerns about the potential consequences of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (UIGEA), which took effect June 1.

The new law, which online gaming sites have been preparing for since President George W. Bush signed it 2006, is designed to combat online gambling by preventing the fund transfers between credit card companies, banks, and online gaming sites running “unlawful Internet gambling.” It requires financial service providers to enforce the law by blocking transactions from gambling Web sites.

The law has drawn heavy criticism from these institutions…… Full Story

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Here are a few teams you may want to avoid when at home and consider playing on the road.

• Chicago White Sox……+5.28 units on the road / -7.69 units at home
• Cleveland……………….+2.06 units on the road / -7.69 units at home
• LA Angels………………+8.59 units on the road / -1.47 units at home
• Tampa Bay……………..+10.74 units on the road / -8.49 units at home
• Milwaukee………………+1.11 units on the road / -11.77 units at home

Looking at some of these numbers should make is obviously that home teams are not an automatic play. Tampa Bay has 19.23 unit swing from road games to home games. Milwaukee nearly 13.

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For example: if you play a team with say 20/1 odds and they get past the first round and are now favored in the second round, you can always take the opponent at plus points and have a chance of staying alive with your future play and collecting your bet with the pointspread. With a 20/1 to you have flexibility with hedging. If you put say $100.00 on a 20/1, your payoff is $2000.00 if they win it all, however, you can hedge the second round at say $500.00 and if they lose you win your $500.00 bet thus giving you a $400.00 profit on your future bet….If they win you still are alive for the $2000.00 payoff and can now look agains to hedge in the next round and still make profit.

I like to pick my best 4 teams to play on the futures….here are my picks for this year….I will usually take the one team I figure to win it all plus my longshots with the good odds.

Duke 7/1…..BYU 100/1…..Georgetown 20/1….W. Virginia 10/1….(all odds taken from the Bodog Sports Book

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