Some Tips For Betting NFL Preseason
There is money to be made betting the NFL preseason, but you have to take a totally different approach to your handicapping methods. Statistical data and regular season history is all but useless when handicapping preseason. The key to winning at preseason is “Reading”. By reading the various team articles, coaches pre game interviews you can get a pretty good handle on how the coaching staff is going to approach the game. They will invariably disclose the quarterback rotation for each game and whether they will be working on defense or offense for the particular game. This is a big edge if you spend the time to “Read”. Here are a few things I look for when handicapping a preseason game.
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My favorite angle is the “free agent” angle. A team that has picked up a lot of free agents or made trades during the off-season will normally give these players some extra playing time so they can get familiar with the team playbook and offensive and defensive schemes. These are almost always veterans who many times will be matched up against the opposing teams rookies and players the coaches are looking at to make roster decisions.
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The coaching angle has not been as solid in the past few years, as there are so many coaching changes and new head coaches that preseason patterns have not been formed. There are coaches that historically do not give a hoot about winning preseason games, while others year after year want to build on the confidence factor for players and fans, and win as many preseason games as possible.
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“The Quarterback rotation factor” is extremely important. Coaches will invariably announce a few days in advance their intentions of who will play and for how long at QB. This is vitally important as there is always a game or two where the starting QB may be scheduled to play well into the 2nd half. This will sometimes end up in a matchup where the opposing team is using there rookies or backups for most of the game.
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The “Quarterback depth factor” is also a big advantage. When you have a team that has 3 backups that all have 3 or 5 years experience in the NFL and / or have had some starts, this is a big advantage over a team where all backups are rookies or second year players. The experienced backup is less prone to make rookie type mistakes that could cost them the ball game.
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The “0-3 Factor” has proven to be very profitable in preseason. Even coaches who do not care if they win or lose in preseason do not want to finish the preseason without a win. Teams going into week 4 or 5 of preseason without a win are teams you want to pay close attention.
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The “Final Tune-up” factor can catch you a nice easy winner. Coaches always have one game where they want to give the starters a final tuneup and keep them in the game sometimes for as much as 3 quarters. Depending on the coach and the situation, this is usually the 3rd of 4th game of preseason. The final game of the season is used by coaches for looking at rookies and players on the bubble before cut time. Catching a game where the coach is using as his tuneup for starters against a team looking at rookies will almost always guarantee you a win.
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The “Show me the Money” factor is one where a team may be coming off a disappointing season and the owners are sweating out the lack of season ticket sales. They will on occasion instruct the coaching staff to try and get some wins in preseason to get back the confidence of the fans and increase ticket sales.
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The “On the chopping block” factor is one where the head coach’s job is hanging by a string. With his job on the line he will always be looking to rack up wins in preseason.
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Total plays can be profitable in preseason when reading that say, both teams are going to concentrating on the same thing, such as improving offense or defense or the running game or passing game…Two teams who are using the game to concentrate on improving offense will more often than not, get you an easy win on a “over” play. Of course the opposite holds true when concentrating on defense. A team vowing to work on the running game will also tend to be a good under play. A team who is coming off a very bad offensive performance, will invariably be looking to work on offense in the next game and the same holds true for the defense.
There are many angles to watch for when betting pre-season, these just happens to be my favorites and I have done very well over the years in pre-season plays. Of course this is a very selective method and don’t always add up to a lot of plays, but you can help add to your bankroll for the regular season…
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