Is This A Play On The Over?…Don’t Jump On It Too Quick

If your a football fan, you would probably share the opinion of most that this game will be a shootout…With two teams that have the potential of an explosive offense, with two of the best QB’s in the league and 2 of the best running backs, it would outwardly appear to be high scoring…but you may want to look into this a little deeper before risking your hard earned bankroll..

With the total currently sitting at 53, it still isn’t as high as the 57 the books hung on the Colts game last week. If this is such an obvious over play, then why is it that both these teams have played to the under more times than the over? Both are 8 overs and 9 unders on the season…

Of course there is a thing called “defense” that is part of a football game too, and how teams matchup, and how the game figures to be played  have a awful lot to do with how the scoring will go in a game…This matchup may not be all that great for an over play, at least in my opinion….

Minnesota will have the edge on defense as theyare giving up an average of 18.5 per game to the Saints 20.9. Hmm, that’s only 39.4 average per game between them…Did I say the total was 53? Let’s look a little closer. Minnesota is only allowing 87.4 rushing yards per game which will most likely cause the Saints to concentrate more on the passing game this week. Defensively the Vikings are allowing 214 yards through the air to the Saints 236 defensively.

With Adrian Peterson you might think that the rushing edge goes to the Vikings, but not true..The Saints are averaging 134.5 on the ground to the Vikings 119.2 yards per game which pits the Viking defensive strength against the Saints offensive strength which appears will be somewhat neutralized in this game.

Minnesota games are 1 over and 5 under when facing a NFC south opponents over the past 3 years, but on the other side of the coin, the Saints are 5 over and 1 under when facing a NFC north opponent. Saints totals are 2 under and 4 over in playoff games since 1992 and the Vikings are 6 over and 10 under

Only 2 of the Vikings games this season have surpassed a 53 point game total, while 7 of the Saints games reached 53 or more, however 5 of those games came in the first 6 weeks of the season. Overall the Vikings game totals averaged 48.1 and the Saints 53.5 which would give us a average expected total for this game of 50.8. In their last 3 games the Saints games are averaging only 43.0 points per game and the Vikings 50.8 for a average of 46.9 for this game.

With Harvin being very questionable for this game for the Vikings, you can deduct at least 3 points from the total if he is out. With Brees prone to the sack this year and the Vikings ability to stop the run also adds up to less points this week…

Nothing I see tells me this game will be an easy over bet….I am either going under or not playing the total at all…

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