Some Tips For Handicapping The Playoffs

The first thing I always like to look for when handicapping playoff games, are teams coming in with the momentum….Teams that have win streaks or have won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games is always an edge over those teams that have faltered down the stretch…

Obviously paying very close attention to the injury reports is extremely crucial. Losing a key player in a must win game usually does not have a real positive result…..

I always give the home team a little extra home field advantage in playoffs…especially if the visitor has a losing or mediocre spread record on the road…I also will look at warm weather teams traveling to a field that expects to have very cold or inclement weather conditions…

Teams who did not get a bye in the first week are always at a disadvantage over teams who are rested and have had time to prepare.

Coaches who have playoff or big game experience will get an edge over coaches or teams that have not been in a playoff situation.

Watch for “public favorites” that appear to have an over valued line…The general public will have a tendency to bet favorite teams in the playoffs and a lot more money is bet on playoff games than on a regular season game….

Be careful when backing teams that are starting rookie or 2nd year QB..although they may have performed well enough during the regular season to get them to the playoffs, many times the pressure of  “win or go home” will create some mistakes they normally wouldn’t make in a regular season game.

And finally, don’t fall into the trap that “home favorites in the playoffs are an automatic win”….This may be true when considering a straight up bet, but it is not all that good a percentage when considering the spread, in fact because of the fact that so many believe in this, the value to the line for the road dog is usually overvalued.

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