Bad Weather Doesn’t Always Mean Low Totals

This is the time of year in the NFL that you have to watch the weather reports very carefully when handicapping the schedule…You can usually find at least one game on the schedule with an inclement weather report that you can get some big value…The public is prone to driving the total down as soon as a bad weather prediction is published.

I believe the bad weather condition will effect the outcome of the “side” play more often than the total…A predominant passing team playing in rain or snow is not effected all that much as they have an advantage of the receivers and ball carriers knowing their route and being able to plan their cut or movement in advance and preparing their footing for the condition..The defense has to react much more quickly and are more prone to losing their footing than does the receiver or running back.I once saw O J Simpson run for over 200 in a game in Buffalo where the snow was nearly ankle deep on the field…The biggest effect the weather would have on a game total is if there is a high wind factor, the passing game will be limited and teams may be forced to more of a ground game which uses more clock and can create a lower scoring game.

Don’t overreact to bad weather when considering playing a total on a game, in fact look to go against a public who moves the line toward the under, you can many times find good value in sticking with the over…Look to play the side of the team with the better offense. The better offense will always have an edge over a good defensive team in bad weather..

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