New Mexico Bowl

University Stadium – Albuquerque N. Mexico

Saturday December 19, 2009 – 1:30 PM Pacific

Current Las Vegas Line: Fresno –10.5…Total 55.0

Everything points to Fresno St getting the win and the cover in this game except my T-Rating line to the value of the current line….The line is currently favoring Fresno by 10.5 and I make my line on the game Fresno –9.7…Neither of these teams for well in the role they are in…

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Wyoming as dog when playing away from War Memorial is only 3-10 ATS over the past 3 years….Fresno away from home as a favorite has a 2-11 ATS record over the past 3 years (0-2-1 this year).

Bowl experience has to favor Fresno as they have been to a bowl for the past two years and with coach Pat Hill now in his 14^th season, he is a seasoned bowl game coach…Wyoming hasn’t been to a bowl game since 2004, so none of their players have the experience of handling the hype of bowl games. Coach Christensen is in his first year as head coach.

Fresno has the momentum coming into this game as they have run off  7 wins in their last 8 games while Wyoming as only won 2 of their last 7 games…The Cowboys just barely made bowl game eligibility as they finished the season with a very mediocre 6-6 record….They are ranked 112^th in the country in total offense with only 298 average yards per game. Defensively Wyoming holds a slight edge giving up 394 yards per game to Fresno’s 411…Wyoming is being outgained by 97.0 yards per game and outscored by over 10 per game…Coming to Wyoming’s defense however..they have faced 4 teams on their schedule this year that are ranked in the top 25. They were shutout in 3 of their 6 losses getting outscored 86-0 in those 3 games. They are 0-5 versus bowl eligible teams this year and being outscored  in those 5 games 170-30. Wyoming is only 2-10 ATS over the past 3 years when playing a team with a winning record…They are averaging 16.0 ppg this season while giving up an average of 25.2 per game.

Fresno is averaging 34.3 points per game while giving up an average 27.8….They are rushing for an average of  231.6 yards per game which actually plays into Wyoming’s defensive strength giving up only 128.0 per game but if they can put up 3 runs of over 60 yards agains Boise, then they should be able to run rampant over Fresno…Expect they will easily rush for over 200 yards in this game.

If it appears this is all a writeup of why Wyoming won’t win this game, well that’s exactly what it is. Fresno is no overwhelming powerhouse team to be looking at them to dominate over anyone, but the Cowboy’s are just not a good offensive football team and will have problems putting up points against anyone. There is one big question mark in my mind, and that is the statistics of Wyoming based on the teams that they have played…They have played some pretty powerhouse offenses….BYU, Texas, Utah, TCU….

My T-rating line: Fresno –9.7

Opinion: Fresno will win this game and I would be on them for all of what was mentioned above, however, I put a lot of faith in my T-Ratings Lines and I just don’t have the value here to make the play. Many believe this to be high scoring, but I am doubtful that Wyoming can get over 2 scores and with Fresno grinding out a time consuming ground game, I don’t see them putting up over 35 which is what they would probably have to do in order for the total to go over.

Projection: Fresno 30 – Wyoming 17

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