Oregon St / Oregon…Winner Goes to the Rose Bowl…

Tonight’s Pac 10 matchup comes down to the winner going to the Rose Bowl when #16 8-3 Oregon State travels the short distance to meet rival #8 9-2 Oregon. Oregon State will be looking for some huge revenge tonight as they haven’t forgotten the beating they took last year when the Ducks put up 65 points against them with a upset 65-38 win. The Beavers needed the win to advance to the Rose Bowl. It was the worst defeat since coach Mike Riley tood over the reins. OSU was a two point home favorite in that game. Tonight the tables are turned as Oregon is a 9.5 home favorite.

This game looks to be a strength against weakness matchup for both sides..Oregon holds the edge on the ground with an explosive 231.4 yards per game, however the Beavers defensive strength is defending the run as they are allowing opponents only 98.5 yards per game on the ground…The offensive strength of

Oregon State is the passing game, averaging 272.5 yards per game while Oregon is holding opponents to 187.5 yards per game… Oregon St although known more for their passing game has a respectable 149.7 yards average on the ground which is Oregon’s defensive weakness giving up  130.6 this year. Last year’s game saw Oregon dominating the ground game 385 yards to State’s 89. Any chance of the Beavers pulling of the upset win and smelling the Roses, appears to be the ability to stop the run….

Backup running back LaMichael James has been a pleasant surprise for the Ducks this year rushing for over 100 yards in 8 of the 9 games he started. QB Masoli has led the offense to over 42 points in all 7 of his starts. Oregon States QB Sean Canfield leads the Pac 10 in passing yards and holds a .703 completion percentage…RB Quizz Rodgers has rushed for 1313 yards and has racked up 19 TD’s…..Hmmm looks like there could be a lot of scoring in this game…

Oregon holds the series straight up record 10-7 but the Beavers are on the plus side at 10-7 against the spread…7 of the last 12 games in this series has gone over the total which is set at 62.5 for tonights game. Oregon St comes into this game on a 4 game win streak having outscored their last 3 opponents 121 to 45…Oregon just squeaked by Arizona in their last game getting a 44-41 victory. Oregon has put up over 40.0 in their last 5 games averaging 44.0 points per game during that stretch, but has also given up 152.0 for a 30.4 points against average.

Oregon State is 4-1 ATS on the road this year and the Ducks are 5-1 at home. Looking at the Trend Chart..there doesn’t appear to be an edge for either team. All game situations are very equal. There is one trend however that does stand out, Oregon is only 2-8 ATS when installed as a home favorite of between 7.0 and 10.0 points in the last 10 situations, while Oregon St is 8-6 as a road dog of 7.0 to 10.0 points.

In analyzing this game it appears it will all come down to Oregon States ability to stop the run…If they can contain the running game, say holding Oregon to under 150 yards, I believe they have a chance to pull off the upset, however that is a real big IF!..They do have the emotions running high with their revenge factor after last years upset….

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