Handicapping the college basketball post season takes on a few different approaches from just picking the winners in the regular season…

The conference tournaments are usually all played at one venue and so one team will have the advantage of the home court, otherwise all games must be considered the same as road games. The conference tourny’s will sometimes be the deciding factor for teams getting into the big dance. Although many conferences have automatic bids that go to the winner of the tourny, some will still be vying for an “at-large” bid or a higher seeding, so it is important to take these situations into consideration when handicapping…

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It’s Risky Business But You Can Make Money Betting Nascar

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist for anyone who has been around sport betting or gambling for any period of time, to know that betting on a stock car race is probably the most riskiest of any sport you will ever bet…When you have 43 race cars going around 4 or 5 turns reaching speeds of 200 miles per hour, anything can happen and, it usually does.

However, that being said, you can make money betting on Nascar races if you just follow some betting guidelines and you are willing to do lots of reading and you know a little about the sport and the drivers. We have been relatively successful in betting Nascar, picking up winning units each year.  Here are some of the guidelines that we follow:

 1. We will normally have circled 2 or 3 driver who we feel have a good chance of winning the race and have odds that will give us back at minimum 3 to 1 on our money..So if we were going to bet 3 drives in one race, we would have to have at least 9 to 1 odds on each of them. Winning 2 or 3 races in the season at say odds of 10 to 20 to1, would almost insure you at least a break even season.

2. Along with picking a driver to “win” the race, we usually play about 5 head to head match ups…Again we look for the very small favorite or a underdog..these wagers will help keep you in the game and absorb some of the losses on the win bets, until you hit one of the win bets.

3. Pay close attention the “grid” or the race lineup…If the race is being run on a short or narrow track, try to  stay clear of wagering on drivers that are starting in the 2nf hald of the pack. (20th or worse). It is very difficult to come from behind on a short or narrow tracks than on a track say like Daytona or Talledega. Also there are usually more opportunity for wrecks on these type of tracks and being in the middle or back of the pack puts your driver in a much greater risk of getting caught up in it.

4. Stay away from rookies and winless drivers. This is tough sport and the veterans are ruthless. At some point most drivers in Nascar will eventually win a race but for you to risk money on when that happens is just not a wise gamble. There are some drivers who have been around for 10 years and more who have never won a race. 

5. Research the driver records at the track they are going to participate. Some drivers are just psyched into running at certain tracks and invariably will do well. Look for drivers who have a +50% in top 10 finishes at the track. On the flip side, stay away from drivers who never seem to be able to come close on certain tracks, this will hold true for even some of the top drivers in Nascar.

6. By first eliminating all the rookies and winless drivers, and then the drivers who have failed to reach the top 10 at a particular track, you will probably be left with maybe 15-20 drivers out of the 43 starters. You want to now look at starting positions, if on a short track you want to throw out any drivers you have left that are starting toward the rear. If let’s say you have your sights set on playing 3 drivers to win, then you will want to throw out the ones that have less than 9 to 1 odds. Now you can start to handicap the remaining drivers.

7. Wait till the last minute to make your bet. By this time you should have a pretty good field of drivers that have at least a chance of winning the race. Now comes the important part…DO NOT make your wager until after the Nationwide race which is usually run the day before and do not make your wager until you have the news items available on the day of the race..You will find your biggest aid to either supporting or dismissing a driver. There are many things that can alter the race before the race even starts. Drivers could have mechanical problems, get ill, have a crash in qualifying or warm ups and some even are forced to go to back up cars..Some might be sited for an infraction and be forced to start from the back of the pack regardless of their initial qualifying postion.

Following these few guidlines should help to make the chances of profit much higher. We will be making our weekly selections available to our members the morning of the raceday… 

Get All Our Nascar Selections, Plus all Sport Selections With Our One Day Member Pass For Only $15.00…. tonydiamondsports.com  Read the rest of this entry »

Some Added Factors Need To Be Considered Handicapping The 2nd Half Of The NBA Season..

The all-star break is just around the corner and that marks the halfway point of the NBA season, not exactly but for all practical purposes…Like in most pro sports as the season winds down you need to take a long at some factors that don’t usually apply during the first half of the season…

1. Be careful of teams that are out of contention and not likely to make the playoffs…These teams will continue to play hard on an individual basis and try to win, but coaching strategies may change…as they may start to look at some of the bench players and giving them some playing time to get a head start on next season
2. Be careful when going against teams that are in the playoff hunt but not having a playoff berth locked up, especially if they are going against a team that is out of contention..They will have added motivation and emotion.
3. Keep a close watch on injury reports. The long season in the NBA will start to take it’s toll. Injury’s become much more apparent in the 2nd half as they were in the first half of the season.
4. Watch closely the teams that have an “older” (elderly) roster as sometimes they begin to wear down and start to lose some speed and stamina, which creates more rest time for starters and more time for the bench players. This is also the time you should for teams that have a strong bench during the first half with a lot of playing time, they will usually have an advantage in the second half.
5. And finally as we get down to the end of the season, watch out for teams that have no incentive to win as they already have a playoff berth locked up and either have home court or no chance for home court. Coaches will invariably start resting starters for the playoffs.

The one plus factor in this scenario is that all the teams have played enough games that should make your power ratings very accurate.

Get Complimentary Free Pick Best Bet Emailed To Your In-Box Daily tonydiamondsports.com Read the rest of this entry »

Super Bowl Team Props

• Total QB Sacks: “over” 3.5 +200
• Will There be 3 Unanswered Scores: No +140
• Will There Be One Scoreless Quarter: Yes +325
• The Largest Lead By Either Team: “under” 15.5 -1.15
• Addai over 65.5 rushing yards -1.15
• Garcon to score a TD “yes” +1.35

Guaranteed Play of the Day..It Wins or You Don’t Pay..!!

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Guaranteed Play of the Day Now On 34-11-3(75.5%) Run…20-8-1 (71.4%) In 2010.. Season to Date: 67-28-3 (70.5%).  

Super Bowl Props Can Be Profitable If You Are Selective

There are sportbooks that are literally offering a book full of props on the Super Bowl. One Vegas Casino has nine pages of props. These are big money makers for the books because the average sport bettor is enticed by the money being offered and just the opportunity to have lots of action going. Unfortunately for the sport bettor, and fortunately for the book, these bettors don’t have a clue of what the true odds or the chances of each prop winning percentage.

You can make money playing these props…Last year we had 8 prop bets, we won 5 but picked up 5.5 units of profit. The first rule of playing the props is to stay away from the ridiculous or ones that have absolutely no way of anaylitically making a intelligent decision. If you take time to really look into some of these props based on statistical data or past performance you quite often can find an edge to the posted line.

Personally I like to play props that are giving me plus money or at least a very small lay of say -1.10 to -1.20 Props like who will score first or who will kick the first field goal or will a certain running back will gain 3+ yards on his first carry are all merely a guessing game…Look for props that you can intelligently anaylze…(I will continue this discussion with some specifics in my next post…)

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Those of you who are not pet lovers may not relate to this story, but I am sure you will all agree that occasionally we need some inspiration to overcome the occasional downsides of the challenges we face in every day life. Inspiration and motivation can come from a variety of places, but I would venture to say it is kind of a stretch to think it could come from your pet dog.

My sport consulting business was at an all time low with the economy crisis making an impact. I decided to start another home business in addition to my existing business. Knowing it would take time to realize the profits it would take to generate the type of income that could sustain us and give us a comfortable lifestyle without any other resources, I decided to go ahead with the project. Read the rest of this entry »

Is This A Play On The Over?…Don’t Jump On It Too Quick

If your a football fan, you would probably share the opinion of most that this game will be a shootout…With two teams that have the potential of an explosive offense, with two of the best QB’s in the league and 2 of the best running backs, it would outwardly appear to be high scoring…but you may want to look into this a little deeper before risking your hard earned bankroll..

With the total currently sitting at 53, it still isn’t as high as the 57 the books hung on the Colts game last week. If this is such an obvious over play, then why is it that both these teams have played to the under more times than the over? Both are 8 overs and 9 unders on the season…

Of course there is a thing called “defense” that is part of a football game too, and how teams matchup, and how the game figures to be played  have a awful lot to do with how the scoring will go in a game…This matchup may not be all that great for an over play, at least in my opinion….

Minnesota will have the edge on defense as they Read the rest of this entry »

Some Tips For Handicapping The Playoffs

The first thing I always like to look for when handicapping playoff games, are teams coming in with the momentum….Teams that have win streaks or have won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games is always an edge over those teams that have faltered down the stretch…

Obviously paying very close attention to the injury reports is extremely crucial. Losing a key player in a must win game usually does not have a real positive result…..

I always give the home team a little extra home field advantage in playoffs…especially if the visitor has a losing or mediocre spread record on the road…I also will look at Read the rest of this entry »

The NFL Playoffs teams have been established…I will have a playoff handicapping article posted tomorrow…